Dalton Minimum Returns

NASA solar physicist David Hathaway, Nothing is wrong with the Sun

Russ Steele

   
The sun is behaving normally says NASA solar physicist David Hathaway in this NASA Science article.

"There have been some reports lately that Solar Minimum is lasting longer than it should. That's not true. The ongoing lull in sunspot number is well within historic norms for the solar cycle."

Hathaway has studied international sunspot counts stretching all the way back to 1749 and he offers these statistics: "The average period of a solar cycle is 131 months with a standard deviation of 14 months. Decaying solar cycle 23 (the one we are experiencing now) has so far lasted 142 months--well within the first standard deviation and thus not at all abnormal. The last available 13-month smoothed sunspot number was 5.70. This is bigger than 12 of the last 23 solar minimum values."

In summary, "the current minimum is not abnormally low or long."

Details here.

I wonder when we will know for sure that the Gore Minimum has started? Will it be Maunder or Dalton Minimum?  Stay tuned, we are seeing science in action, although at the speed of drying paint.

Anthony Watts has an interesting discussion for sun watchers

Russ Steele

A few months ago, Anthony plotted the Average Geomagnetic Planetary Index (Ap) which is a measure of the solar magnetic field strength but also daily index determined from running averages of eight Ap index values. He calls it the best common yardstick for measuring solar magnetic activity.  Details here.

No Sun Spots by 2015?

Russ Steele

Anthony Watts has the details here on the Livingston and Penn paper: “Sunspots may vanish by 2015″. 

From the “I hope to God they are flat wrong department”, here is the abstract of a short paper on recent solar trends by William Livingston and Matthew Penn of the National Solar Observatory in Tucson. It was sent to me by reader Mike Ward.

Mike offered me a copy of the paper, but Anthony has already posted an analysis, with some excellent comments by his blog readers.  The question that needs to be answered is have Livingston and Penn extrapolated too far? See William's comment and then follow the discussion.

I share Anthony's interest and concern about the apparent step change in 2005 to a lower plateau of the Geomagnetic Average Planetary (Ap) index, which I have captured from Watts Up With That and plotted below. I would like to see more information and discussion on this apparent mode switch. Could this be related to the sudden switch in temperatures from Jan 2007 to Jan 2008?  Could this be related to the shift of the PDO to a cool phase?  I read some where, that it takes about three years for changes on the Sun to be reflected on the Earth due to the latency cause by oceans that cover 70% of the planet.  Due to their size It takes time for them to warm or cool.  We know from the Argos Project (3000 floating sensors) the oceans have been cooling since about 2005. Is this cooling caused by the Ap switch?  Would love to hear your thoughts.

The Sun is still spotless

Russ Steele

The Sun remains quiet, with a few transit spots that pop up and disappear in less than 48 hours. The Financial Post's Lawerance Soloman takes a look at the consequences here.  We could be headed for another ice age if the Sun continues to remain quiet.

Sun spots and solar minimums in Arizona Daily Star

Russ Steele

Dan Sorenson writes Sunspot cycle more dud than radiation flood

Many solar scientists expected the new sunspot cycle to be a whopper, a prolonged solar tantrum that could fry satellites and raise hell with earthly communications, the power grid and modern electronics.

But there's scant proof Sunspot Cycle 24 is even here, let alone the debut of big trouble.
So far there have been just a couple minor zits on the face of the sun to suggest the old cycle is over and the new one is coming.

Rest of the article here.

An ice age cometh?

Russ Steele

Phil Chapman a geophysicist and astronautical engineer who lives in San Francisco, Australia first astronaut, has some thoughts in The Australian. He mentions declining sun spots, lengthening cycle 23 and the Dalton Minimum. Phil thinks we should be thinking about cooling rather than warming as cooling has a more negative impact on our growing global population.

Details here.

UPDATE: The American Thinker has some thoughts on Phil's article, with an update on the prediction of Cycle 24.

Would 1800 observers see the tiny tim sun spots?

Russ Steele

During the Dalton Minimum there were fewer observable sun spots. Could it be there were sun spots that could not be observed by the naked eye, but could have been observed by todays observation tools. Tools not available in the 1800s. The folks at Solar Science ask the question and share their thoughts. 

New predictions for Cycle 24

Russ Steele

Anthony Watts has some more information on the start of Solar Cycle 24, second half of 2008 according to Jan Janssens. Details here.

Cycle 23 Forecast- The Movie

Russ Steele

Again Anthony Watts has a great post on Cycle 23. It is movie showing the progression of sun spots through the later part of the cycle on a graph. Details here.

Sunspot discussion at Watts Up With That

Russ Steele

Anthony Watts at Watts Up With That has a interesting discussion on the current sunspot cycle and the start of Cycle 24. Some comments on the Dalton Minimum in the comments.