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Dalton Minimum


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« Another Dalton Minimum predicted! | Main | Grand Minimum: Legacy for Our Children »

February 09, 2009

Comments

papertiger

Best guess the trees are the problem. It's not so tough using trees to guage low water condition but they only drink so much in high water condition. It's the same problem with trees as temperature proxy. If it is cool for an extended period the rings will be tighter, but on the warm side of the scale trees start using their natural water coolig mechanism to maintain their optimum temperature for photosynthesis.

papertiger

ftp://ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/treering/reconstructions/california/sacramento-flow-cdwr.txt

Russ Take a look at the second Miko reconstruction where they compare the Recon with the actual measured river flow.

Here's just the 70's.

1970, 18.60, 24.06
1971, 20.30, 22.57
1972, 12.76, 13.43
1973, 15.25, 20.05
1974, 22.74, 32.5
1975, 17.11, 19.23
1976, 7.67, 8.22
1977, 7.30, 5.12

The recon is all over the map. Some years the error exceeds, other years measured annual flow altogether.

This just compounds to me how pathological tree ring as temp studies are.

Mann is a loony-toon. Instead of that flake lecturing kids he should be locked away in a padded cell.

Russ Steele

Papertiger,

I agree there is a problem between reality and the reconstructions, and I forgot to mention that in my post. Thanks for bringing it to our attention. However, one of the issues is the 70s there were a number of dams on the rivers in the Sacramento watershed. They have an impact on the flow measured in Sacramento. Water releases are determined by power needs and to save fish in the delta. Water is stored in one year for release in future years. The trees do not know about any of this water storage, unless they are living on the shore line.

papertiger

That's a good point Russ. The observation record goes back to 1906. I wonder how many dams were on the river then?
Folson powerhouse began operation in 1895, so that's at least one.

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