Dalton Minimum Returns

Latest on solar activity

Russ Steele

Physorg.com has an article on the the latest solar activity prediction: Fewer Sunspots, But Not Necessarily Less Activity.

According to the forecast, the sun should remain generally calm for at least another year. From a research point of view, that’s good news because solar minimum has proven to be more interesting than anyone imagined. Low solar activity has a profound effect on Earth’s atmosphere, allowing it to cool and contract. Space junk accumulates in Earth orbit because there is less aerodynamic drag. The becalmed solar wind whips up fewer magnetic storms around Earth’s poles. Cosmic rays that are normally pushed back by solar wind instead intrude on the near-Earth environment. There are other side-effects, too, that can be studied only so long as the sun remains quiet.

Emphasis added.

Decadal and Bidecadal Oscillations in Global Temperatures

Russ Steele

Basil Copeland and Anthony Watts have an interesting paper posted at Watts Up With That

EVIDENCE OF A LUNISOLAR INFLUENCE ON DECADAL AND BIDECADAL
OSCILLATIONS IN GLOBALLY AVERAGED TEMPERATURE TRENDS

It takes some time to understand the full scope of the paper, but I wanted to share this graphic and text, as it relates to the Dalton Minimum.

While it is true that solar activity, as measured by SSN, is already on the decline, we would include the double Hale cycle 20-23 in the recent peak of solar activity, and not necessarily expect to see the bottom of the current decline in solar activity that quickly.

The issue here can perhaps be framed with respect to Figure 7 below:

Assuming we are on the cusp of a downward trend in solar activity that began circa 1990 according to Javariah, and will decline, say, to a level comparable to the trough seen in the early 1900's, will it be a sharp decline, like that seen at the beginning of the 19th Century, or a more moderate decline like that seen at the beginning of the 20th Century?

Solar Flux Tutorial

Russ Steele

Dr. Leif Svalgaard has been a regular commenter at Anthony Watt's blog Watt's Up With That on solar cycles and sunspot issues. Leif has post his first guest post at WUWT  on Solar Radio Microwave Flux. It is a rather long post, with some excellent graphics, that in the end demonstrates we really do not have enough information to forecast the future of sun cycles. For years the radio flux was a good indicator of spot activity, now the fitted spot number and observations are diverging. And, scientists only have theories for answers. But, then we only have about 60 years of flux data and 250 years of sunspot observations, a very thin snapshot or the solar universe we live in. Interesting times ahead.   

Cycle 24 - don't panic yet!

Russ Steele

Leif Svalgaard and Hugh Hudson have and interesting analysis of the late Cycle 24 at RHESSI Science Nuggets, including some very interesting graphics, here are two samples.

In summary it is probably too soon to panic. In the modern era (Figure 1) there is no precedent for such a protracted activity minimum, but there are historical records from a century ago of a similar pattern. We do expect activity to pick up fairly suddenly soon. In the meanwhile this is a good opportunity to use the excellent new data available from many satellites and ground-based observatories without interference from new flux emergence. We can hope to learn a great deal about how low-level activity works in the network and in the polar caps.

Although this transition may look unusual to us, for the Sun it may just be business as usual. The current transition looks very much like the one between cycles 13 and 14, 107 years ago. Not only were the sunspot numbers (or 'region counts') very similar, but the heliospheric magnetic field back then behaved very similarly to what we observe today, as seen in Figure 4.

I am a strong believer in historical cycles, and I find every analysis interesting.

NOAA: Moving the goal posts again

Russ Steele

As the sun continues it long slumber, NOAA scientists and their solar panel had to revise their predictions of future solar activity, predicting a mild solar season, the weakest since 1928.  The facts were over running past predictions.  My guess is this is not the final adjustments.

NOAA:

The panel predicts the upcoming Solar Cycle 24 will peak in May 2013 with 90 sunspots per day on average. If the prediction proves true, Solar Cycle 24 will be the weakest cycle since number 16, which peaked at 78 daily sunspots in 1928, and ninth weakest since the 1750s, when numbered cycles began.

The question is will we have the weather we had in the early 1900s.  Given the reliability of past predictions, my guess there is still a high probability we are headed for a Dalton Minimum, and much cooler climate. 

Full story here, includes a discussion of our vulnerability to solar storms. 

Solar Cycle 24 Prediction Update

NOAA/SWPC

May 8, 2009 -- The Solar Cycle 24 Prediction Panel has reached a consensus decision on the prediction of the next solar cycle (Cycle 24).  First, the panel has agreed that solar minimum occurred in December, 2008.  This still qualifies as a prediction since the smoothed sunspot number is only valid through September, 2008.  The panel has decided that the next solar cycle will be below average in intensity, with a maximum sunspot number of 90.  Given the predicted date of solar minimum and the predicted maximum intensity, solar maximum is now expected to occur in May, 2013.  Note, this is a consensus opinion, not a unanimous decision.  A supermajority of the panel did agree to this prediction.

NOAA/SWPC Solar Update Friday

Russ Steele

May 6, 2009: NOAA/SWPC will release an updated Solar Cycle 24 Prediction Friday, May 8, 2009 at noon Eastern Daylight Time (1600 UT). Details here and analysis at Watts Up With That.

Avid sun watcher concerned second Dalton near

Russ Steele

Thomas F. Giella, NZ4O, Lakeland, FL writes:

On Thursday solar cycle 23 sunspot group S740 re-emerged near S08W64. Today NOAA/SWPC assigned it #10116. Solar cycle 23 is now 13 years long from first spot to present one, an extension of the already record long solar cycle!!!

Besides space plasma physics I also have education in paleoclimatology, meteorology and oceanography. Having said that I am becoming seriously concerned that we are really headed for a second "Dalton Minimum" and it's attendant global cooling for a period of 20-30 years. Another "Dalton Minimum" will put quite a strain on resources such as food and petroleum.

The NZ4O Daily Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive at: http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm