New Little Ice Age?

Russ Steele

Louis Hissink's Crazy World, blog by Louis a Geologist from Perth Australia has some thoughts on the current sun spot cycle.

Sunspots reach a nadir – lower than the Dalton Minimum

Timo Niroma has posted his latest analysis of solar sunspots on his website.(Requires Microsoft Log in?)

“ The yearly spot value of 2007 was already only 7.6 which is below the previous minimum in 1996 (with 8.6). The value dropped to 2.6 in 2008 and the smoothed value at the moment is 1.7 (December 2008). (In December 2007 it was 5.0 .) We must go to the year 1913 to find a lower smoothed value (1.5). The November 2008 value means that the cycle 23 has at least a length of 12.6 years.

There has been only 2 cycles since 1749 longer than the cycle 23, the cycle 4 (1784-1798) just before the Dalton minimum and the cycle 6 (1810-1823 or the second of the Dalton cycles). The cycle 9 (1843-1856) had about the same length as we have now achieved (12.5 years). It began the series of 5 Jovian cycles and a cool climate in 1856-1913 (the Damon minimum).
 
Now what do we have:

1. Livingston-Penn observations that the magnetic strength of the sunspots irrespective of their amount has linearly declined (my emphasis LH) since at least 1990 leading the spots vanishing in 2014 or 2015 if the trend continues.

2. A 50-year low in solar wind pressure: Measurements by the Ulysses spacecraft reveal a 20% drop in solar wind pressure since the mid-1990's.

3. A 12 year low in solar irradiance: the sun's brightness has dropped a whopping 6% at extreme UV wavelengths since the solar minimum of 1996.

4. A 55-year low in solar radio wavelengths. The lessening of radio emissions seems to be an indication of weakness in the sun's global magnetic field.

5. The all-time low (since Maunder minimum) of Gleissberg cycle in 2005 (72 years).

6. Ap Index very low.

7. TSI (Total Solar Irradiance) at its lowest since satellite observations began in 1979 (1365 Watts).

Autocorrelation of the sunspots since 1760 gives the highest correlation as 210 years. The Dalton minimum began in 1798.

The yearly sunspotnumbers of 1795-1798 were 21, 16, 6.4 and 4.1, the corresponding values for 2005-2008 were 30, 15, 7.6 and 2.8. The first full Dalton year or 1799, had a SSN value of 6.8. The SSN of the first 6 months of 2009 is 1.7.

Adding the previous minimum 1995-1998 yearly values to these:

1796 16 / 1995 18 / 2006 15

1797 ..6 / 1996 ..9 / 2007 ..8

1798 ..4 / 1997 22 / 2008 ..3

1799 ..7 / 1998 64 / 2009 thus far 1.7

Well, there was the 300-year Roman Optimum in 100 BC to AD 200, the 200-year oscillation 200-900 (200 cold, 300 warm, 400 cold, 600-900 cold), the 300-year Medieval Optimum 900-1200 (with some colder spells plus warm aftermaths), the 300-year Little Ice Age 1400-1700, the 300-year "Global Warming" 1700-2005 (with some drawbacks especially in the 1800's). A NEW LIA WITH SPÖRER AND MAUNDER IN 2005-2300???

THE CYCLE 24 HAS NOW GONE CLEARLY BELOW DALTON LEVEL

Comment: The clue lies in the observation that the magnetic field strength of the sunspots has declined linearly (bold emphasis above), which simply means that the electric currents forming the sunspots have declined in power density; sunspots are really electric discharge sites on the Sun’s photosphere after all, though the inability to link magnetic fields to electric currents remains perplexing in astrophysics and among the sunspot spotters.
 
Sunspots are really the “indicator” lights on the Sun, indicating the strength of the galactic electric currents powering the sun have decreased in power.

I also posted a short comment on the possible mechanism for the Earth’s geomagnetic field, implying that it’s caused by the polar Birkeland currents – well – that is partially right since further thinking about it has revealed a better explanation, but that can wait when I return to Perth, early in July since the Norsat satellite service I am using here in Pardoo has it’s moments, something to do with the geophysics of the atmosphere, among other factors.

Update: I missed the comment about “solar wind pressure” which is another misapplication of the terms used to describe gases to plasma – we are dealing with plasma, and it’s the decrease in the solar electric currents that is the correct term. While we continue to use inappropriate terminology to describe plasma, it will be difficult for mainstream science to make the paradigm shift to the Plasma Model.

We still live in Stanley Steamer era astrophysics!

What do you think?  New Little Ice Age?

Comments

[Magnus A]

Is there an implication from the sunspot group which formed on July 4 on the Livingston-Penn hypothesis? Is it weakened by this event?

[Magnus A]

I'm btw sure we're now on approximately Dalton Minimum territory. I just wish a minimum had occured 5 years earlier, before the modern myth and hysteria about AGW caused the current policy for draconic socialist plan economy...