Dalton Minimum Returns

More sun, cosmic ray, cloud connections

Russ Steele


Graphic from JoAnn Nova

Here is the papers abstract: Cosmic rays linked to rapid mid-latitude cloud changes
B. A. Laken , D. R. Kniveton, and M. R. Frogley
Abstract. The effect of the Galactic Cosmic Ray (GCR) flux on Earth’s climate is highly uncertain. Using a novel sampling approach based around observing periods of significant cloud changes, a statistically robust relationship is identified between short-term GCR flux changes and the most rapid mid-latitude (60°–30° N/S) cloud decreases operating over daily timescales; this signal is verified in surface level air temperature (SLAT) reanalysis data. A General Circulation Model (GCM) experiment is used to test the causal relationship of the observed cloud changes to the detected SLAT anomalies. Results indicate that the anomalous cloud changes were responsible for producing the observed SLAT changes, implying that if there is a causal relationship between significant decreases in the rate of GCR flux (~0.79 GU, where GU denotes a change of 1% of the 11-year solar cycle amplitude in four days) and decreases in cloud cover (~1.9 CU, where CU denotes a change of 1% cloud cover in four days), an increase in SLAT (~0.05 KU, where KU denotes a temperature change of 1 K in four days) can be expected. The influence of GCRs is clearly distinguishable from changes in solar irradiance and the interplanetary magnetic field. However, the results of the GCM experiment are found to be somewhat limited by the ability of the model to successfully reproduce observed cloud cover. These results provide perhaps the most compelling evidence presented thus far of a GCR-climate relationship. From this analysis we conclude that a GCR-climate relationship is governed by both short-term GCR changes and internal atmospheric precursor conditions.

More details and discussion at Watts Up With That, full paper is here.  In a comment at WUWT the reports author makes it very clear that, while there may be a connection between the sun, cosmic rays and clouds, climate researchers cannot turn their back on anthropogenic warming research funding sources.  Ben Laken writes in the comments:

Firstly, I would say (and I sure I speak for my co-authors Dom and Mick also here), this work does not comment on global warming and it should not be interpreted to cast doubt on recent anthropogenic warming. What it does, is rather establish that there may be good evidence of a Cosmic Ray – cloud signal detectable in satellite observations of clouds, which has traditionally been a very murky area as over the last 10 or so years, published work in this area has dealt with small sample sizes, and observations of limited statistical significance.

So, the important thing here is that it finds interesting evidence to suggest that this complicated element of (theoretical) natural atmospheric variability, may be operating.

Anthony is right, this opens the door for more research and more analysis of existing data.  Watch these speakers at the 3rd International Climate Conference in Berlin, Dec. 3-4, 2010:

• Prof. Dr. Henrik Svensmark, Denmark, Atmospheric Sciences
• Prof. Dr. Nir Shaviv, Israel, Astrophysicist
• Prof. Dr. Jan Veizer, Canada, Paleo-geologist

P Gosselin at http://notrickszone.com/ will be attending and reporting. Stay Tuned

The unbearable flatness of 10.7

 Anthony Watts at Watts Up With That

While sunspots are often the proxy of choice for solar activity reports, the 10.7 cm radio band is also an excellent indicator of solar activity. As you can see in this NOAA graph below, it is slowly coming up, but there’s still a fair gap to the red line, which represents the predicted level.

 More graphics at the Link Here.

Is increased vulcanism associated with low sunspots?

Russ Steele

During the Dalton Minimum there was significant volcanic activity in conjunction with low sunspot activity.  In 1815 Indonesian volcano Tambora creating the biggest eruption in the last 10,000 years, which led to a cooling of the climate globally.

Now we are seeing more volcanic activity around the Pacific, in Iceland and Africa. The question is are these activities above normal and what are the long term consequences?

Indonesia
MOUNT MERAPI, Indonesia (AP) — Eruptions at Indonesia's deadly volcano appeared to be intensifying Friday, as clouds of searing gas and ash cascaded down the mountain, torching homes in one slope-side village and triggering a chaotic midnight evacuation.

Meriapi has roughly "three times more magma than what was ejected by the Indonesian volcano Tambora in 1815 – the biggest eruption in the last 10,000 years, which led to a cooling of the climate globally."
Krakatau Volcano, Volcanic activity has been increasing at Krakatau volcano, Indonesia. The volcano is producing 100 explosions per day. Sailors crossing the Sunda Strait are being cautioned about the activity of Krakatau, which has been increasing for more than a week.

Nigeria
Reports coming out of Nigeria tell of a volcanic eruption in the mountainous Mkomon district of Kwande, at the border with Cameroun Republic.

Philippines
Meanwhile, the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (PHILVOCS) has raised the alert status of the Bulusan Volcano to Alert Level 1. The Bulusan Volcano ejected a light grayish steam and ash column that reached an approximate height of 600 meters above the crater rim.

Russia
In late October twin volcanoes, Shiveluch and Klyuchevskaya on Russia's far-eastern Kamchatka Peninsula are pumping massive ash clouds into the air, covering nearby towns in ash and causing planes to be diverted.

The question that keeps coming to my front cortex is are low sunspots and increased vulcanism related, and if they are how? I would be interesting in readers comments and ideas.