Dalton Minimum Returns

NASA Sun Spot Number predictions revised yet again

Russ Steele


NASA has revised their Sun Spot prediction once again and it is now
 at the level of the Maunder Minimum of 1675 -1715 when the climate was much colder. The solar cycle 24 predicted sunspot maximum has been reduced again – predicted peak down to 59 Max.
 
Previous NASA predictions below:
    ▪    2010 October: Predicted peak 60-70
    ▪    2009 May 29: predicted peak: 80-90 range
    ▪    2009 Jan 5: predicted peak: 100-110 range
    ▪    2008 Mar 28: predicted peak: 130-140 range   

More detail can be found at Watts Up With That
   

Forbush decreases and Antarctic cloud anomalies in the upper troposphere

Benjamin A. Laken, a,  and Dominic R. Knivetona,  Department of Geography, University of Sussex, Falmer, Brighton, England, BN1 9QJ, UKA

Abstract
We demonstrate evidence that past composite based studies centred around the onset of Forbush decrease (FD) events may have improperly isolated the maximal galactic cosmic ray (GCR) decrease associated with the FD events. After an adjustment of the composite to account for such shortcomings we find indications of anomalous cloud cover decreases (of around 3%) located in the upper levels of the troposphere at high southern latitudes. These cloud changes are detectable after latitudinal averaging, suggesting the possibility of a second order relationship between the rate of GCR flux and cloud cover in this region. The maximal cloud change is observed in advance of the maximal GCR decrease; this implies that if the observed cloud changes bear a causal relationship to the rate of GCR flux, then cloud properties may be sensitive to changes in GCR conditions rather than the maximal deviations themselves.

This is more support for the Svensmark effect.

H/T to Heliogenic Climate Change

The Sun is still in a slump - is next ice age just around the corner?

Russ Steele

Anthony Watts has posted the details at Watts Up With That.

NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) produced their monthly solar cycle progression update yesterday. The news is not encouraging. We’ve had a drop in solar activity again in December, The sunspot count is lower, but the really worrisome thing is the Ap geomagnetic index. The solar dynamo has now dropped to magnetic activity levels last seen in late 2009.


You see all more details at WUWT, but the real impact is that we are headed for a long period of no sun spots. When that has happened in the past, the earth got colder. In some cases much colder, in the 1600-1700 the earth experienced a Little Ice Age.

Only now are scientist beginning to appreciate the work of Livingston and Penn, who published a significant article in Science: Say goodbye to sunspots.

But the rest of the world is now just getting around to realizing the significance of the work Livingston and Penn are doing related to sunspots. Science ran with a significant story: Say goodbye to sunspots

Here’s a prominent excerpt from WUWT:
The last solar minimum should have ended last year, but something peculiar has been happening. Although solar minimums normally last about 16 months, the current one has stretched over 26 months—the longest in a century. One reason, according to a paper submitted to the International Astronomical Union Symposium No. 273, an online colloquium, is that the magnetic field strength of sunspots appears to be waning.

ooo

Scientists studying sunspots for the past 2 decades have concluded that the magnetic field that triggers their formation has been steadily declining. If the current trend continues, by 2016 the sun’s face may become spotless and remain that way for decades—a phenomenon that in the 17th century coincided with a prolonged period of cooling on Earth.

If that bottom line continues to decline, there will be no more sunspots, and winters will be much colder, Spring and Fall much shorter and summers much cooler. This will severly impact the world's food supply.  Prepare for tougher times, this could be the begining of the next ice age, at least a mini ice age.

Relationship between Solar Cycle Length and Global Temperature Anomalies

Russ Steele

This is a paper written by Stephen Strum, Frontier Weather, Inc.  Below are some excerpts from Strum paper that highlights the return of a Dalton like Grand Minimum: 

“The most recent solar cycle, currently estimated to have reached a minimum in December 2008 based on a 12 month centered moving average of monthly sunspot numbers, was the longest solar cycle since 1798‐1810, measured trough to trough. The cycle lasted approximately 150 months or 12.5 years, two full years longer than the 20th century average of 10.5 years.”

ooo

"Only two solar cycles since 1750 have lasted as long as or longer than the most recent cycle, and both were followed by the weakest solar maximums of the past 250 years, a period during the early 1800s known as the Dalton Minimum. Given the length of the previous cycle, the upcoming solar cycle could be among the weakest on record since 1750 if the relationship holds.    Additionally, of the last five solar cycles that persisted twelve or more months longer than average, four were followed by another cycle lasting longer than average. In every instance, however, the next solar cycle was somewhat shorter in length than the previous cycle."   

ooo

"Finally, note that the warm 1996‐2008 period followed the shortest solar cycle during the last 150 years. With the most recent solar cycle being the longest cycle of the past 200 or so years, the potential exists for significant global cooling during the upcoming decade. Even if the warmer trends of the past 30 years are utilized, below average global temperatures would still be possible during the next decade if the past trends hold."

"While not quite as distinct as on a global scale, temperature trends for North America also have closely followed trends in solar cycle length as the plot below demonstrates.    While temperature anomalies will likely not decline as much as might be suggested by the solar cycle length curve, the long solar cycle could at least help to drive North America temperature anomalies back down towards the long‐term average."

(Click for a larger view)

If this length of cycle correlation hold up we are in for some very cool temperatures over Cycle 24 and possibly Cycle 25, which will be present over the next 20-25 years.  Those temperature could approach those experience during the Dalton Minimum.  I recommend reading the whole paper, with more supporting graphics here.  And then check out this graphic showing that sea surface temperatures are  continuing to fall.

(Click for a larger view)

Vast Solar Eruption Shocks NASA and Raises Doubts on Sun Theory

John O'Sullivan

We are forever being told that the sun is a vast gas ball of hydrogen and helium at the center of our solar system. But new evidence may help prove this isn’t the case after all, according to solar experts who say the sun has an iron core.

A stunned NASA admits, “Astronomers knew they had witnessed something big. It was so big, it may have shattered old ideas about solar activity.”

The vast global solar eruption covers ~10^9 km of the solar photosphere. The US space agency reports, “The whole solar hemisphere erupted simultaneously in an avalanche effect that had been triggered in the tiny solar core and propagated outwards” (NASA: Dec 13, 2010).

Read more at Suite101: Vast Solar Eruption Shocks NASA and Raises Doubts on Sun Theory