Relationship between Solar Cycle Length and Global Temperature Anomalies

Russ Steele

This is a paper written by Stephen Strum, Frontier Weather, Inc.  Below are some excerpts from Strum paper that highlights the return of a Dalton like Grand Minimum: 

“The most recent solar cycle, currently estimated to have reached a minimum in December 2008 based on a 12 month centered moving average of monthly sunspot numbers, was the longest solar cycle since 1798‐1810, measured trough to trough. The cycle lasted approximately 150 months or 12.5 years, two full years longer than the 20th century average of 10.5 years.”

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"Only two solar cycles since 1750 have lasted as long as or longer than the most recent cycle, and both were followed by the weakest solar maximums of the past 250 years, a period during the early 1800s known as the Dalton Minimum. Given the length of the previous cycle, the upcoming solar cycle could be among the weakest on record since 1750 if the relationship holds.    Additionally, of the last five solar cycles that persisted twelve or more months longer than average, four were followed by another cycle lasting longer than average. In every instance, however, the next solar cycle was somewhat shorter in length than the previous cycle."   

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"Finally, note that the warm 1996‐2008 period followed the shortest solar cycle during the last 150 years. With the most recent solar cycle being the longest cycle of the past 200 or so years, the potential exists for significant global cooling during the upcoming decade. Even if the warmer trends of the past 30 years are utilized, below average global temperatures would still be possible during the next decade if the past trends hold."

"While not quite as distinct as on a global scale, temperature trends for North America also have closely followed trends in solar cycle length as the plot below demonstrates.    While temperature anomalies will likely not decline as much as might be suggested by the solar cycle length curve, the long solar cycle could at least help to drive North America temperature anomalies back down towards the long‐term average."

(Click for a larger view)

If this length of cycle correlation hold up we are in for some very cool temperatures over Cycle 24 and possibly Cycle 25, which will be present over the next 20-25 years.  Those temperature could approach those experience during the Dalton Minimum.  I recommend reading the whole paper, with more supporting graphics here.  And then check out this graphic showing that sea surface temperatures are  continuing to fall.

(Click for a larger view)

Comments

[Greg Goodknight]

The earliest paper I know of that linked the length of solar cycles with climate temps is this one by Eigil Friis-Christensen in 1991:
http://www.sciencemag.org/content/254/5032/698.abstract

Yes, it will be interesting to see if the pattern Strum graphed continues. In the meantime, the sunspot number for Dec 10 was about the same as that for Dec 09. Cycle 24 is not taking off. Very weak.
http://solarcycle24.com/sunspots.htm