Dalton Minimum Returns

Solar news: Forbush decrease in progress

Russ Steele

More details at Watts Up With That

A Forbush decrease is a rapid decrease in the observed galactic cosmic ray intensity following a coronal mass ejection (CME). It occurs due to the magnetic field of the plasma solar wind sweeping some of the galactic cosmic rays away from Earth.

(Click for a larger image.)

Fewer CRs should result in few clouds. Not sure if we have the tools to measure the decrease. Stay tuned.

NASA revises the sunspot prediction down again

Russ Steele

From the Marshall Space Flight Center, Dr. Hathaway’s page:

Current prediction for the next sunspot cycle maximum gives a smoothed sunspot number maximum of about 58 in July of 2013. We are currently two years into Cycle 24 and the predicted size continues to fall.


Anthony Watts has more at WUWT, including latest the monthly data plots from the Space Weather Prediction Center.

Fabius Maximus - on sun spots and food prices

Russ Steele

Update about the weather on the Sun. Perhaps coming soon to Earth, visible in your local supermarket.

Summary:  The current fad for “black swans” just reflects our disinterest in non-consensus thinking.  We prefer the clear stories the news media tells us about poorly understood things (both natural and social phenomena).  We would be less often surprised if we would only open our vision to see things on the borders of the known.  One example may be in front of our eyes right now:  extreme weather on the sun perhaps driving up food prices.

NOAA has posted January’s solar activity to its graphs.  The count of sunspots shows continued slowing.  If there is a connection between low solar activity and earth’s climate (see the previous post for details), then the Earth is due for years — perhaps even 2 decades — 0f cold weather and high food prices.

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More important, as Archibald predicted, so far cycle 24 tracks cycle 5 – the Dalton Minimum – as shown in this graph (source here; data through November 2010).  The years of cycle 5 were cold, although the causes remain unclear (volcanos contributed, perhaps like those erupting in Kamchatka now).  

Looking more and more like a Dalton Minimum, as grain prices rise.

The Cold Weather Solar Connection

Russ Steele

Although scientist do not understand the exact mechanism for how the lack of sunspots influences our climate, history indicates when the sun spots disapear, the earth gets colder. We are currently in one of the lowest sun spot cycles in 200 years.

Cross Posted at  NC Media Watch