Here is a summary from the World Meteorological Organization:
• A basin-wide El Niño event continues. Its strength peaked in November-December 2009 at a moderate level. So far, declines in strength have only been modest;
• Further decline in strength is expected over the next few months, but considerable uncertainty remains regarding the timing and rate of decay. Nonetheless, the most likely outcome by mid-year is considered to be near-neutral;
• The period March-June is a particularly difficult time of the year for forecasting tropical Pacific developments, and while near-neutral is considered the most likely outcome by mid-year, it is still considered possible for El Niño to persist or for the early stages of a La Niña to be present by mid-year;
• It is however important to recognize that impacts of the current El Niño are expected to continue to be felt in many parts of the world through at least the second quarter of 2010. This is because impacts on many climate patterns both close to and remote from the Pacific, can occur even during the decay phase of an El Niño event.
What does the extended El Niño mean for citizens of Northern California.
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