NC Media Watch

Local Republican recovery?

Russ Steele

A local blogger keeps suggesting that Democrats are about to take over the County from what has been a Republican strong hold in the past. While the County did vote for Obama and Brown in the last election, the political sand seem to be shifting under the Democrats according a recent Rasmussen Report.

For the first time in recent years, voters trust Republicans more than Democrats on all 10 key electoral issues regularly tracked by Rasmussen Reports. The GOP holds double-digit advantages on five of them.

Republicans have nearly doubled their lead over Democrats on economic issues to 49% to 35%, after leading by eight points in September.

The GOP also holds a 54% to 31% advantage on national security issues and a 50% to 31% lead on the handling of the war in Iraq.

But voters are less sure which party they trust more to handle government ethics and corruption, an issue that passed the economy in voter importance last month. Thirty-three percent (33%) trust Republicans more while 29% have more confidence in Democrats. Another 38% are undecided. Last month, the parties were virtually tied on the issue.

As the Clinton re-election team declared back in the 90, "It is the Economy Stupid"  If that is the case again, then we can skip the other nine issues and just note the Republicans lead 49-35 on the economy.

We have more than average upper-income voters in Nevada County, and I suspect many may be quite liberal and appeared to have voted for Obama and Brown.  I am not sure what they thinking then, but I think the prospect of steeply higher taxes will dissipate of some their warm feelings for the Democrats come November 2010.

Fighting innumeracy with nuggets

Russ Steele

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia:  Numeracy is a contraction (or portmanteau word) of "numerical literacy", and refers to an ability to handle numbers and other mathematical concepts.. Innumeracy is the absence of numeracy.

The Sierra Environmential Studies Foundation has undertaken a program to fight innaumercy. Starting today, SESF is offering a new series on critical thinking tools, which they call Numeracy Nuggets. George Rebane, the SESF Director of Research, plans to contribute fresh Numeracy Nuggets every three to four weeks on the SESF web site.  His first Nugget was posted today. If you would like to contribute your own Numeracy Nugget, please e-mail George at: info@sesfoundation.org.

The median is not the average

Russ Steele

In a story on February, Union  staff reporter Trina Kleist writes about median-prices homes.

What a home can cost, February 2, 2006

What does it take to buy the median-priced home in Nevada County?

The median price of a single-family house in 2005 rose to $460,000, up nearly 19.5 percent from the year before. For single-family house sales in the month of December, the median hit $475,000, according to information gathered by the national research company DataQuick Information Systems, based in San Diego.

In a follow up story she writes again about median-priced homes. Only this time she explains what median means. Bravo!

Median house price be. February 7, 2006

The median wage in 2005 for all jobs in northeastern California is $17.36, or about $36,100 yearly before taxes, based on a 40-hour work week, according to state figures.

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The median is not the average. Rather, it is the exact middle, where half of everything measured is higher and half is lower. It is the number preferred by statisticians tracking wages, housing costs and most other statistics in the state.

I wish she had taken the time in her first story to provide this explanation.   Many Union readers do not have the math skills to know the difference between, average, mean, and median.

With an election, community surveys, and economic studies on the horizion, I decided it was time for me to re-sharpen my statistical skills. We are going to be barraged with statistics in 2006.  I am half way through Even You Can Learn Statistics, A guide for Everyone Who has Ever Been Afraid of Statistics, by David M. Levine. This is an excellent book, with easy to understand step-by step explanations of statistics, including interactive samples in Excel and TI-83/84 Calculators.  The Excel examples are down loaded from the publishers web site.  You can play with the numbers in Excel and as see the results, a great interactive learning tool.

We all need to sharpen our analytical skills, so we can understand what we read in the Union, hear on TV, and read in those political flyers appearing in our mail boxs any day now. Be prepared!

In the coming months, in this category, we will be providing more information, and some advice on how to sharpen your analytical and numeracy skills.