NC Media Watch

Watching the ocean rise and fall

Russ Steele

Alan Stahler has an interesting story in the Friday Union online discussing the current El Nino pattern in the Pacific. See Soundings: Watching the Ocean Rise and Fall. Alan does a good job explaining complex scientific concepts.

You might want to avoid the comments following the story, there is more than enough misinformation to confuse the typical reader. Stick with Alan's and let him explain how the El Nino forms. Here is a graphic of the latest sea levels measured by the JASON-2 spacecraft mentioned in the article.



Note that since 2006 the sea level have essentially stopped rising. File this information away and use it at the next cocktail party when the token liberal at the party tries to convince you sea levels are rising and we are all domed unless we support Al Gore in a life style beyond his wildest dreams, by buying his carbon credits. 

The Sun Defines the Climate

Russ Steele

The folks at the A.P.P.L.E Center for Sustainability want Nevada City and the surrounding region to be more sustainable and resilient under times of stress. Here is a heads up by a Russian scientist that the planners at the Sustainability Center at might want to consider - Long term global cooling.

(Habibullo Abdussamatov, Dr. Sc. - Head of Space research laboratory of the Pulkovo Observatory, Head of the Russian/Ukrainian joint project Astrometria - (translated from Russian by Lucy Hancock)

Key Excerpts: Observations of the Sun show that as for the increase in temperature, carbon dioxide is "not guilty" and as for what lies ahead in the upcoming decades, it is not catastrophic warming, but a global, and very prolonged, temperature drop. [...] Over the past decade, global temperature on the Earth has not increased; global warming has ceased, and already there are signs of the future deep temperature drop. [...] It follows that warming had a natural origin, the contribution of CO2 to it was insignificant, anthropogenic increase in the concentration of carbon dioxide does not serve as an explanation for it, and in the foreseeable future CO2 will not be able to cause catastrophic warming. The so-called greenhouse effect will not avert the onset of the next deep temperature drop, the 19th in the last 7500 years, which without fail follows after natural warming. [...] We should fear a deep temperature drop -- not catastrophic global warming. Humanity must survive the serious economic, social, demographic and political consequences of a global temperature drop, which will directly affect the national interests of almost all countries and more than 80% of the population of the Earth. A deep temperature drop is a considerably greater threat to humanity than warming. However, a reliable forecast of the time of the onset and of the depth of the global temperature drop will make it possible to adjust in advance the economic activity of humanity, to considerably weaken the crisis.

Full Study is here.

Californian wins seven Transformational Energy Research Projects

Russ Steele

The Department of Energy has announced funding for 37 ambitious transformational research projects - including some that could allow intermittent energy sources like wind and solar to provide a steady flow of power, or use bacteria to produce automotive fuel from sunlight, water and carbon dioxide. California received seven of the 37 grants, totaling $20,851,750. More details here.

University of California, Riverside    $760,705

   Riverside, CA    Vehicle Technologies Alkaline polymer electrolyte fuel cell membranes that eliminate the use of expensive catalyst materials. Potential to drastically reduce fuel cell costs and enable their widespread application in building and automotive applications.

Stanford University    $4,992,651

    Stanford, CA    Building Efficiency Sensors, software, and controls to track and improve energy use patterns. Could lead to substantial reductions in building energy use by changing human behavior through timely information and usable controls.

Porifera Inc. (University of California Berkeley, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory) $1,077,992

    Hayward, CA    Carbon Capture Carbon nanotubes integrated into polymer membranes to increase the flux of CO2 capture membranes by two orders of magnitude. Could enable much less expensive carbon capture from coal plants.

  

950 earthquakes in California and Nevada in past week

Russ Steele

Here is the index map from the USGS (click for a larger image):


Earthquake activity seems to be increasing in California and Nevada. More than 950 earthquakes measuring from 1 to 5.2 have been recorded in the past week.  Could this be an indicator of some pending volcanic activity or just a normal week on along the West Coast subduction zone?  Stay tuned! 

H/T to iceagenow.com

First it was the Hockey Stick, now the Son of Hockey Stick is dead

Russ Steele

I have been trying to figure out how to summarize the most recent work of Steve McIntrye at Climate Audit, showing how scientists have cherry picking data to produce  climate change hockey stick graphics, then hid this data to cover up their deceit.  Then these fake graphics are used in UN IPCC reports to justify CO2 reduction. These IPCC Reports are then used by Congress and California Legislature to justify cap-and-trade tax schemes, or worse yet take control of your property as reported at Rebane's Ruminations this morning.  While cogitating on the issue Jo Nova has done the heavy lifting in: Cherry Picking of Historic Proportions.

Anthony Watts has more at Watts Up With That here and here.

I have posted a touch of reality at Dalton Minimum Returns. Historical data indicates we are in for some long term cooling. In the past long solar cycles, like we are experiencing now, have produced cooler temperatures.

CARB's Lead Scientist Unqualfied

Russ Steele

The lead scientist on California Air Resources Board study justifying costly new diesel rules got his degree from a UPS Store in New York for a $1,000. The UPS Store is the address listed for "Thornhill University" for its campus. But, no big deal CARB used his research anyway. It was not about the science, it was about the mission.

Hien Tran admitted Dec. 10 to CARB that he lied about having a Ph.D. in statistics from UC Davis. Instead, Tran said, his Ph.D. was from "Thornhill." Nevertheless, the air board still voted unanimously to adopt the rules based on his research Dec. 12 -- without acknowledging Tran's deception. Months and months later, Tran was demoted, but he still has a key role. Academic fraud, you see, is no big deal. The air board is on a mission. The normal concerns about making huge decisions based on tainted/flawed/untrustworthy/suspect research? The board couldn't be bothered.

Details here.

These costly rules have a negative impact on local businesses.  Which in turn has an impact on our local economy.  Your thoughts.

Judging Global Warming As A Scientific Theory

Russ Steele

The Resilient Earth has a very easy to understand discussion of the global warming theory. This is a must read for those sitting on the fence and those who are not well grounded in scientific theory, but want to understand the issues and consequences in believing the global warming scare stories of rising sea levels, melting glaciers, more intense hurricanes and polar bear extinction.  

The supporters of anthropogenic global warming (AGW) claim that they have science on their side. Time and again we are told that the debate is over, the science is settled and consensus among the world's scientists reached. If that is true, why are so many scientists coming forward to oppose and denounce the climate alarmist's theory? To understand the true nature of the climate change debate it is necessary to understand what a scientific theory is and how to judge a theory's validity.

WMO Conference Warning: Climate may cool for two decades.

Russ Steele

The New Scientist has an online story from the recent World Meteorological Organization Conference in Geneva here.

Forecasts of climate change are about to go seriously out of kilter. One of the world's top climate modellers said Thursday we could be about to enter "one or even two decades during which temperatures cool.

"People will say this is global warming disappearing," he told more than 1500 of the world's top climate scientists gathering in Geneva at the UN's World Climate Conference.

"I am not one of the sceptics," insisted Mojib Latif of the Leibniz Institute of Marine Sciences at Kiel University, Germany. "However, we have to ask the nasty questions ourselves or other people will do it."

Few climate scientists go as far as Latif, an author for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. But more and more agree that the short-term prognosis for climate change is much less certain than once thought.

Lets see the sun could be enteriing a one to two decades of low sunspot activity. I wonder if the climate modelers are beginning to take note.  Is it time for a little self evaluation at the WMO?  Who caused the past warming, humans or the sun?  

Dalton Minimum now possible according to NASA

Russ Steele

In December 2006 I wrote a paper published on the SESF Website that forecast the return of a Dalton Minimum climate pattern.  Details here, at the bottom of the page. 

Cooler Temps - Dalton Minimum Returns?

Global warming hype could be masking a more immediate climate problem. A problem that could have a larger impact on our lives than global warming over the next 20 years. Solar scientists have predicted the return of the Dalton Minimum, which was the result of two low intensity sunspot cycles lasting over 28 years. During the early 1800s the average temperatures in the Mid West were 2-4 degrees cooler than the 20th Century average. In many areas it was much dryer than average, especially along the California coast. We have already started to see some ocean cooling as we leave sunspot cycle 23 and enter sunspot cycle 24, the first of the two predicted minimum cycles.

See the latest post at my blog the Dalton Minimum Returns. NASA is now saying that a Dalton Minimum repeat is possible according to David Archibald in a guest post at Watts Up With That

NASA’s David Hathaway has adjusted his expectations of Solar Cycle 24 downwards. He is quoted in the New York Times here Specifically, he said:

” Still, something like the Dalton Minimum — two solar cycles in the early 1800s that peaked at about an average of 50 sunspots — lies in the realm of the possible.”

Details at the  Dalton Minimum Returns.

Have you seen the strange clouds?

Russ Steele

NLCs INVADE THE USA: On July 15th, a wave of intense noctilucent clouds (NLCs) descended over the continental United States. Story at Spaceweather.

Similar reports have poured in from Oregon, Washington, Nebraska, Idaho, the Dakotas and northern California. These sightings are significant because they come from places so far south. When noctilucent clouds first appeared in the late 19th century, they were confined to latitudes above 50o N (usually far above). The latitude of e.g., Nebraska, is only 41°30' N. No one knows why NLCs are expanding their range in this way; it's one of many unanswered questions about the mysterious clouds.

In 2003 NASA suggested the clouds could be caused by global warming here.  However, it was about 2003 the we started to see the global  warming decline and start to cool.  As the globe cool  the clouds have been increasing.  Global warming? Or Global Cooling?  Could it be signal caused by a very quiet sun? What do you think? Warming or Cooling?  None of the above?

These clouds at 80 to 100 thousand feet above the earth, on the edge of space.