Dalton Minimum Returns

NOAA Predicts Next Solar Cycle Peak

Russ Steele

According the scientist at the NOAA Space Environment Center, the peak of the next sunspot cycle will come in late 2011 or early 2012.  But,  forecasters can't agree on how intense it will be. A 12-member panel charged with forecasting the solar cycle said Wednesday it is evenly split over whether the peak will be 90 sunspots or 140 sunspots.

Click on Graphic for larger image. Note the two level of prediction on the graphic.

The Space Environment Center in Boulder, CO tracks space weather and forecasts its changes as space weather can disrupt activities such as oil drilling, GPS navigation systems and pose a danger to our astronauts.

Half of the specialists predicted a moderately strong cycle of 140 sunspots expected to peak in October of 2011, while the rest called for a moderately weak cycle of 90 sunspots peaking in August of 2012.  An average solar cycle ranges from 75 to 155 sunspot.

Another point of view by David Archibald, Australia, on the next solar cycle.

The first sunspots of a new solar cycle appear usually at more than 20° latitude on the Sun’s surface. According to the last couple of solar cycles, the first sunspots appear twelve to twenty months prior to the start of the new cycle.  Apart from a few spotless magnetic dipoles, there have not been any reversed polarity sunspots with a latitude of more than 20° to the date of this paper. This means that Solar Cycle 24 is at least one year away, or the observational rule is wrong.

Large solar cycles usually arrive early and small solar cycles late. If the observation rule regarding the relationship between first sunspot of the new solar cycle and timing of solar minimum holds, then Solar Cycle 23 will be at least twelve years long. It also follows that the longer the delay to the month of solar minimum, the weaker the amplitude of Solar Cycle 24 is likely to be.

So, by monitoring the sun spots over the next couple of years, we will get some insight in to the future warming, or cooling  of our climate. Right now I am thinking cooling, but we will have to let the sun decide.  Keep your eyes out for some spots appearing between 12 and 20 degrees in latitude. Right now they are all near the equator.

More evidence for cosmic ray influence

Russ Steele

I am linking to this article on cosmic rays, because we are going to discuss cosmic rays climate impact at length in future posts.

Ancient Mass Extinctions Caused by Cosmic Radiation, Scientists Say
Scott Norris for National Geographic News, April 20, 2007

Cosmic rays produced at the edge of our galaxy have devastated life on Earth every 62 million years, researchers say.

The finding suggests that biodiversity has been strongly influenced by the motion of the solar system through the Milky Way and of the galaxy's movement through intergalactic space.

Mikhail Medvedev and Adrian Melott, both of the University of Kansas, presented their new theory at a meeting of the American Physical Society earlier this month.

The theory offers the first explanation for a mysterious pattern previously noted in the fossil record.

"There are 62-million-year ups and downs in the number of marine animals over the last 550 million years," Melott said.

More on the second page of this National Geographic article, including this:

In addition, charged particles produced by cosmic-ray bombardment may cause greatly increased cloud cover, leading to climate change.

What was the Dalton Minimum, and why should you care?

Russ Steele

The Dalton Minimum was a period of low  solar activity, lasting from about 1790  to 1820. Like the Maunder Minimum and Sporer Minimum it coincided with a period of lower than average global temperatures. Low solar activity seems to be correlated with global cooling, though the mechanisms are still being explored by scientist.  But, one has been identified that has high potential to account for this cooling, cosmic rays.  We will explore this, and all possible mechanisms, and follow solar activity on this blog for the next three to five years. Enough time to see if the next solar cycle will be close to normal, or a minimum cycle as several different science teams in Denmark, Germany and Russia have predicted.  NASA has a contrary view. I will report on how well NASA's predictions hold up.

Here is a plot of the sunspot cycles from Wikipedia:

Click for a larger graphic

If we have a minimum cycle like the Dalton Minimum, our local temperatures should be cooler than the average. Here is an graphic showing Grass Valley’s annual Average temperatures, bound by the Minimum and Maximum.

Click for a larger graphic

The original post has been edited to expand the range of possible mechanisms.