Russ Steele
According the scientist at the NOAA Space Environment Center, the peak of the next sunspot cycle will come in late 2011 or early 2012. But, forecasters can't agree on how intense it will be. A 12-member panel charged with forecasting the solar cycle said Wednesday it is evenly split over whether the peak will be 90 sunspots or 140 sunspots.
Click on Graphic for larger image. Note the two level of prediction on the graphic.
The Space Environment Center in Boulder, CO tracks space weather and forecasts its changes as space weather can disrupt activities such as oil drilling, GPS navigation systems and pose a danger to our astronauts.
Half of the specialists predicted a moderately strong cycle of 140 sunspots expected to peak in October of 2011, while the rest called for a moderately weak cycle of 90 sunspots peaking in August of 2012. An average solar cycle ranges from 75 to 155 sunspot.
Another point of view by David Archibald, Australia, on the next solar cycle.
The first sunspots of a new solar cycle appear usually at more than 20° latitude on the Sun’s surface. According to the last couple of solar cycles, the first sunspots appear twelve to twenty months prior to the start of the new cycle. Apart from a few spotless magnetic dipoles, there have not been any reversed polarity sunspots with a latitude of more than 20° to the date of this paper. This means that Solar Cycle 24 is at least one year away, or the observational rule is wrong.
Large solar cycles usually arrive early and small solar cycles late. If the observation rule regarding the relationship between first sunspot of the new solar cycle and timing of solar minimum holds, then Solar Cycle 23 will be at least twelve years long. It also follows that the longer the delay to the month of solar minimum, the weaker the amplitude of Solar Cycle 24 is likely to be.
So, by monitoring the sun spots over the next couple of years, we will get some insight in to the future warming, or cooling of our climate. Right now I am thinking cooling, but we will have to let the sun decide. Keep your eyes out for some spots appearing between 12 and 20 degrees in latitude. Right now they are all near the equator.
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