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Dalton Minimum


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« Climate history and the next minimum | Main | Another Dalton Minimum predicted! »

January 31, 2009

Comments

chillguy33

Hi, Russ,

Revising history absolutely is a fixation with warmists. But they also revise the present! Your blog is spot on; like you, I think a decrease of 4 degrees C is probably due - but I base my argument more on unrevised history. Congratulations on calling this so accurately; the script just keeps unfolding, like it did 200 years ago.

Can you tell me your location?

chillguy33

Found your bio, thanks for the info.

What do you think of the brief appearance of two cycle 23 spots, in relatively quick succession? Perhaps it bodes unfavorably on a startup of cycle 24 anytime soon. There are other likely indications of continued delay, including no minimum in main zone prominences. Think I will blog on it tonight . . . but of course you're welcome to also.

Russ Steele

Chillguy33,

I am reading The Maunder Minimum and the Variable Sun-Earth Connection. The tools those early observer used were rather crude and is some cases life was chaotic at times limiting observing time. I think that those early observers would have missed the last couple of Cycle 23 spots, they were quite small and did not last very long. I think our modern tools are distorting the sunspot numbers when compared to past observations. We have better observing tools, that can see smaller spots, thus raising the count. My guess is that Minimum observers would not have seen the last couple of Cycle 23 spots. I am not sure how to account for the impact of tool improvements on the numbers count. What is your take on the Ap index going dropping sharply in 2005, and then continue to decline? How low can it go?

Sunsettommy

Chillguy33,

Solar Cycle 24 has already started long ago (January 2008).While cycle 23 has all along been going down since that changeover.But still not completely gone as it's recent appearance shows.

But unlike most new cycles.It is barely visible because it is in a rare deep minimum cycle.That seems to have a 200 year cycle.

It appears that cycle 24 will be weak.

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