C. de Jager, S. Duhau: Forecasting the parameters of sunspot cycle 24 and beyond.
Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics, vol. 71 (2009), 239 – 245
Abstract. Solar variability is controlled by the internal dynamo which is a nonlinear system. We develop a physical-statistical method for forecasting solar activity that takes into account the non-linear character of the solar dynamo. The method is based on the generally accepted mechanisms of the dynamo and on recently found systematic properties of the long-term solar variability. The amplitude modulation of the Schwabe cycle in the dynamo’s magnetic field components can be decomposed in an invariant transition level and three types of oscillations around it. The regularities that we observe in the behaviour of these oscillations during the last millennium enable us to forecast solar activity. We find that the system is presently undergoing a transition from the recent Grand Maximum to another regime. This transition started in 2000 and it is expected to end around the maximum of cycle 24, foreseen for 2014, with a maximum sunspot number Rmax = 68 ± 17. At that time a period of lower solar activity will start. That period will be one of regular oscillations, as occurred between 1730 and 1923. The first of these oscillations may even turn out to be as strongly negative as around 1810, in which case a short Grand Minimum similar to the Dalton one might develop. This moderate to low-activity episode is expected to last for at least one Gleissberg cycle (60 - 100 years).
This sounds like a statistical analysis, which to me means nothing since we have little understanding of the mechanisms that drive solar output.
On the other hand, it's great to see more debate. The current deep solar minimum is making a joke of climatology and "solar science." Our conclusions reflect our ignorance, and religion fills the gap.
Posted by: Alex | February 09, 2009 at 08:13 AM
This is my first visit to your website. In 1964 my sister and I were two pleasant gals working at TRW in Redondo Beach. We were more interested in miniskirts than minimums, which I now live to regret. :)
Posted by: win | February 09, 2009 at 08:53 AM
An interesting thought ... the Mayan people worshipped and studied the sun ... their long count cycle (calender) ends in 2012 ... coincidence :) My guess is that they had a better understanding of the sun's cycles than we do!
Posted by: Jon | February 10, 2009 at 04:36 AM
i live in Las Vegas Nv
About 4-5 years ago i move a large shop in the middle of July. It was 125 the first day and 128 the second according to the thermometer in my truck ( measures outside temps )
last year it never was over 115. This year we didnot see 100 till well into July and the max through Aug was never over about 109. Now it's starting October and most days its under 100 and down in the 70's at night.
It seems the climate could be changing, it's warming later or becoming more moderate all the time.
I remember in the 1960's it was 100 to 120 June, July and August steady every day.
I agree with Willie Soon "It's the Sun Stupid". There is no way the humans can compete with the sun. Why has not Al Gore went to www.junk science to prove what he has been saying and collect his $2 Million bucks they have been offering.
As for the Ozone scare here's proof that was BS. How many molecule of Ozone are in a 100 cubic yard area in the Ozone layer around the planet??? Ask that to 100 of your green buddies. 99% will say billions! The real answer is 2 or 3. The next question is ------- ????? How do You measure that??? The Humans don't know.
John Kerry is changing the name from "Cap and Trade" to something the sounds detrimental to humans. Remember JK? He's the fellow that married into $$$ his wife was worth $300 mill when he married her. Then after 20 years and 3 kids as a Catholic he managed to get an "annulment" and marry his present wife that's worth ?? 2,3 4 Billion?? My wife would kill me if i tried some stunt like that. These scum are just in it for the greed and your $$.
Posted by: nev phil | September 29, 2009 at 09:02 PM
My theory on 2012 is very simple. Keep in mind i know very little about 2012. I think the person that was doing the carvings died so that's as far as their carving went.
I do have a question. I've read where our Universe will be going though the middle of the Milky Way. About WHEN is this going to happen?? I know there are lots of close large rocks moving around and our SUN could clobber one and very soon later we would all be frozen. When???
Will that be before or after we could use up all the Carbonized Sunlight (OIL) in the earth??
Does John Kerry, Al Gore or Obama know??
mkaku knows.
Posted by: nev phil | September 29, 2009 at 09:42 PM