NC Media Watch

The 2006 predictions winners & losers

Russ Steele

In 2005 the Union Editor ask the Reader Board for some predictions for 2006. I submitted the predictions below, but they were not considered printable.  So, I posted my predictions on NC Media Watch. Let’s see how I did.

1)  Grass Valley and County will still be talking about “affordable housing,” with no concrete action to solve the problem by years end.

While some small projects were approved in Grass Valley, this is still a major issue,  as several large projects were rejected.  The two largest factors in affordable housing are supply & demand, and government regulations.  Neither of these problems are being adequately address in Grass Valley. On the other hand, Grass Valley has an Affordable Housing and First Time Homebuyer Program and held Workshops on this program through out the year.

But, without an increase is supply housing prices have not declined, as they have in other parts of the state.  Even in fast growing Placer County, the prices of houses have come down as the supply exceeded demand. The lack of affordable housing programs was also an issue in the City Council election. http://www.theunion.com/article/20061010/NEWS/110100167/-1/THEMES36

2)  At the end of 2006, none of the four SDA issues will be resolved.

Still unresolved, and without approval of the sales tax for Dorsey Drive, it is highly unlikely that the most promising Loma Rica development can go forward. South Hill is now in review and discussion, but not resolved. 

3) More housing  projects will be delayed due to unreasonable concerns over traffic congestion by no-growth neighborhood organizations.

We can let these unreasonable organizations speak for themselves: Citizens Concerned About Traffic in SYRCL’s Fall Sierra Citizen:

Says Grant Cattaneo, one of CCAT’s founders, "We have been asked a lot, why CCAT? CCAT formed because we wanted our local governments to be more concerned about traffic. CCAT’s founders are not interested in stopping projects. Rather, we’re interested in ensuring that traffic issues are addressed before [development] projects come on-line."  More on CCAT at SYRCL’s Sierra Citizen.

Building the roads before building the houses, is certainly a delaying tactic. Especially, under the current mitigation fee program, which collects fees as part of the permitting process. Taking out a permit and then waiting two or three years for the roads to be build would stifle development. I would call this approach an unreasonable demand, which is delaying affordable housing development.   

4)  Nevada County will be no closer to funding the Dorsey Drive overpass by years end.

Yep, the sales tax was defeated.

5)  The Union will still be seeking ways of attracting 18-24 old readers by years end.

I do not know what the numbers are, but I see some progress with pod casts, video casts and focus on the youth music scene as a moves to attract more 18-24 year olds.  With a more hip technical savvy editor, we should see more progress in 2007.  I hope the blogs return.  More insight into the thinking that goes on in choosing stories, and what make one story more important than another, would be a nice addition to the Union.  I will take a punt on this one.

6)  The Union will become embroiled in a nasty political campaign conflict, editor’s job in-doubt.

I think the Union’s conflict with Rep Doolittle, and covert support for Brown, can be classified as some nasty campaign politics. Although Pat Butler is gone, I was told it was a money issue, not his politics, or the Doolittle conflict.  But, then again what we hear is not often reality.  This is punt. 

7)  John Spencer will be reelected District 3 Supervisor.

A hands down win!

8)   Stasis and conflict with grow at the Grass Valley City Council, as 2006 election approaches.

There was more than enough conflict and stasis with two members deciding they have had enough “public comment.”.  Dean Williams resigned with his friends citing frustration over his inability to make progress on a slow growth agenda. The lack of full Council support for the sales tax initiative, only one Council member walked the neighborhoods, and the slow resolution of the SDAs speaks to the stasis issue.   

9)  Research will reveal California’s greenhouse gas reduction policies are truly based on junk science.

Wow, another clear winner.  The National Academy of Science and the Wegman Report pulled the supports from the iconic hockey stick and any claims that current temperatures are the highest in a 1,000 years.  Remove the bristle cones and foxtail pines from the hockey stick data sets and the hockey stick vanishes and the Medieval Warming Period returns with temperatures higher than those we are experiencing today.  The NAS report said the bristle cones and foxtails should not be used for temperature proxies.  In fact the NAS report said that proxy temperature data beyond 1600 was unreliable.  The NAS report also confirmed the math and statistical analysis errors in Dr Mann’s studies, upon which most to CARBs argument for greenhouse gas reductions relies. Now the “divergence problem” has come to the fore.  Most to the tree ring studies cut off about 1960, when the data record went to 2000. Why, people wanted to know?  Here is why:

Click for a larger image. [From Climate Audit]

During the period when the most global warming was supposed to be taking place, the tree rings show just the opposite, indicating reduced growth. Which raises the question, are tree rings good indicators of past global temperatures? If not, then the case for global warming is based on junkscience.

Also, a study by atmospheric scientist Ken Caldiera, of the Carnegie Institution’s Department of Global Ecology at Stanford University, reported that the cooling and warming effects of forests largely balance out in the middle latitudes and warm in the higher latitudes.  Thus,  trying to fight global warming by planting trees is “a waste of time.”  Planting trees was a major part of California’s greenhouse gas reduction program. More junkscience.

You will have to be the final judge, but with some clear wins, a couple of punts and no major losses, I take pride in my picks for 2006. Now to start working on 2007, with this kind of track record the pressure is really on.

Polar Bears in the news

Russ Steele

We have been bombarded with misinformation on Polar Bears status in the news. They have not been listed as endangered, the administration has only agreed to study the need.  But, this is not what we are hearing on radio and TV.  Some FACTS for you all to consider.

The IUCN, World Conservation Union, has listed 19 sub-populations of Polar Bears, with the observed or predicted trend counts being:

Data deficient, 7 sub-populations with no definitive data, or 59% of the total Polar Bear population. 

Of those 12 sub-populations with data:
Declining, 5, 5%
Increasing, 2, 10%
Stable, 5, 27%

So, of the bears that do we have data:
12% are declining,
88% are stable or increasing.

Now you know why the administration has agreed to study the proposal before putting the Polar Bears on the endangered list.  Quite frankly, we do not know the status of 2/3s of the population. Making decisions in the bind is stupid, though for many emotionally satisfying. Here is what Dr. Tayor  said in a report to the US Fish and Game this spring:

“Polar bears are becoming the poster-species for "doomsday prophets" of climate change, even though groups pushing for higher protection for the animals don't have the evidence to prove their case, Nunavut's manager of wildlife says.”

Full story here.

Planning for a press generated disaster

Russ Steele

I am a volunteer global warming planner according to Virginia Moran’s criteria, and have  studied the scientific research on climate change and find it wanting.  The facts just do not support the computer projections of a global warming disaster created by rising sea levels. 

Virginia Moran asks Global warming: Should we act now?, December 30, 2006

In a recent report cited by Reuters News, planning for global warming is now an imperative. Tens of millions of people are expected to be displaced as sea level rises. Anyone who is not now even remotely familiar with the ramifications of global warming must be from another planet.

Virginia gets to the root of the problem real quick. -- press reports  The press reports computer model predictions,  not the facts. Fact: Sea levels have been rising since the last ice age at a constant rate of about 1-2 millimeters per year. That is about 3/4 of an inch every ten years. 

Paralysis and politicization of something so obviously devastating to the planet is no longer an acceptable option. In other words, we need to get off our butts.

Been off my butt for a couple of years now digging out the facts.  There has been no acceleration in sea level change. TOPEX/POSEIDON, the U.S.-French satellite has been measuring sea-level change since the late 1990. No change in rate of about 7.5 inches every 100 years. 

Global warming planners should be hired on a local or at least regional level. Their job will be to first familiarize themselves with the scientific research on global warming as thoroughly as possible and to remain current on this information.

Not sure who would hire me, since I am a community volunteer and have been studying this issue since the 1970s when scientists were predicting a coming ice age. It has been a fascinating journey, deciphering the press reported disasters that are not supported by facts, only computer projections.

Their charge, though admittedly daunting, is to predict how global warming will affect their region or city. I live in the foothills of the Sierra and it is well known that the Sierra snow pack is shrinking and likely will be gone within the next 50 years.

Well known by whom?  Here are some recorded temperatures in the Sierra, from the 1900s to recently.  Show me the reported warming that is melting the snow pack.

The Insightworks is one source for a front page story

Russ Steele

I pioneered telecommuting at TRW during the 1990s, before we had access to the Internet in Nevada County, and was the first sanctioned telecommuter in my business sector.   Initially using commercial dial up network e-mail, and then the Internet when it was available. My first laptop was a Radio Shack Model 100 with a built in 300 baud modem.  The day I discovered the Apple Powerbook, I bought one.  As Jill Bauerle reports it was a joy to work some home,  and it took one more vehicle off SR-49 on those days I worked in my home office, a small room in the end of my garage.  I telecommuted from my office in Sacramento, then San Diego, and finally Farmington Hills outside of Detroit.

Jill Bauerle reports that Telecommuting eases traffic, December 28, 2006
Working from home a pleasure for local citizens

"Telecommuters don't cost the public anything, yet they're more effective at reducing traffic than public transit," said Russell Steele, a commissioner with the Nevada County Transportation Commission. He also sits on the board of directors of the Nevada County Economic Resource Council.

Since 2000, Steele has spearheaded the Telecommunications Infrastructure Committee at NCERC with the goal of identifying gaps in the county's broadband coverage and increasing high-speed Internet access for residents and entrepreneurs.

Steele said that, while county maps of Internet coverage roughly estimate that 75 to 85 percent of Nevada County residents have potential broadband access, there are pockets within these supposedly covered areas where residents "can see the end of the Comcast cable from their deck but can't get the cable to their property."

More quotes in the Union Story.

More Al Gore at NCTV, or the facts on climate change?

Russ Steele

I will be following this story real close in the coming weeks to see if we are going to get the facts, or more climate change hysteria. 

Soumitro Sen writes NCTV considers making climate change series, December 26, 2006

NCTV is developing the idea of a TV series on climate change, according to Executive Director Lew Sitzer.

The concept of the series is at its "gestation period," Sitzer said.

"I'm an educator and (climate change) seems to be the largest issue facing us as a society and as a citizen of the planet," Sitzer said. "I think there is more and more research coming out on weather change. It seems to be an issue concerning scientists and citizens. So I think it is important to educate the community."

My question is are we going to get more of Al Gore’s kind of education, cherry picking the science that supports a political point of view, or are we going to get the facts? I am working on collecting  data on climate change in the Sierra, which is in our back yard.  Here is one example, taken from the Grass Valley historical records. The daily max. and min. were averaged, then combined into a monthly average, summed into a yearly average. The data is posted on the web here.

Click for a larger image.

According to historical weather records it was much warmer in the late 1950s in Grass Valley than it was in the last five years. A mystery yet to be resolved is the stability from 2002 to 2005. This is a work in progress, so I will be adding trend lines to future data plots.

  The Steele Family wish you and yours a Merry Christmas!
                 Please click for larger image.

Ozone, the inconvenient truth

Russ Steele

Ron Ramsey is looking for Unintentional polluters, December 23, 2006

I recently read a small article buried in The Union stating that 5 percent of vehicles registered in California are exempt from pollution standards, yet they produced 50 percent of emissions. Wow. With the problems we're having with ozone levels in Nevada County, it seems only logical that we should lobby our legislators to close this loophole.

The ozone problem in Nevada County is not from local cars, it is from the cars and trucks in Sacramento and the Bay Area. If we parked all the cars in Nevada County, it would not change the levels ozone according to Mike Woodman at the Transportation Commission. Ozone in Western Nevada County peaks between 8pm and 2am, according to the Northern Sierra Air Quality Management District, long after most the cars in Nevada County are in the garage,   

Now lets look at the numbers. Nevada County has about 120,000 registered vehicles.  Five percent of 120,000 is 6,000.  Ron, I have not seen 6,000 pre-1947 classic cars on local streets. You have?  When?   

Grass Valley embraces opportunity

Russ Steele

Mark Johnson Grass Valley Mayor writes Citizens can help fill City Council vacancy, December 21, 2006
I wrote about this opportunity on the 8th of December here.

A member of our City Council recently resigned. Now the remaining council must fill the position. Our voter-enacted city charter requires that "any vacancy occurring in the council shall be filled by a person appointed by a majority vote of the council." By state law, the council must fill this vacancy by Jan. 30, 2007. The person selected will serve a two-year term that ends Dec. 9, 2008.

An applicant for City Council must be a registered voter who resides within the city limits of Grass Valley. All interested are invited and encouraged to submit an application and letter of interest to the city clerk at City Hall, 125 E. Main St., by 5 p.m., Wednesday, Jan. 17. The application and additional information are available on the city's Web site at www.cityofgrassvalley.com, from City Clerk Kristi Bashor at 274-4310 or at City Hall during business hours.

Former Mayor Tassone has accepted my invitation to write a guest editorial on this subject. I will post it when it arrives by e-mail. 

Where is the warming?

Russ Steele

Lubo Motl, MIT Professor, Cambridge, MA, points out that the world has been cooling since 1998.

2006: probably the coldest year in the last five years

According to the most recent data from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), the year 2006 is set to be
    •    colder than 2005
    •    colder than 2004
    •    colder than 2003
    •    colder than 2002
    •    ... and, most obviously, ...
    •    colder than 1998,
despite the new El Nino that has been warming the Earth again for a couple of months at the end of 2006 and that will probably continue in 2007. Yes, right now it seems that 2006 will become the coldest year among the most recent five years, and it will belong to the colder half of the years in the last decade.
The number of hurricanes in 2006 was below the long-term average. The total number of Atlantic tropical storms was the second lowest number during the last 12 years, after 1997.

Using the WMO terminology, 2006 is set to become the "sixth warmest year" after 1998, 2005, 2002, 2003, and 2004: see WMO's top five. Nevertheless, when a naive and innocent girl would read most of the newspapers, she would most likely start to think that we live in an era of a spectacular global warming. In reality, we live in an era of a spectacularly inexpensive propaganda produced by unusually blinded ... pundits. And that's the memo.

Click for a larger image.

Scientist who have examined the relationship between sunspots --> cosmic rays --> low reflective clouds --> predicted global cooling by 2006. It looks like they were right. Cooling is here.   I have posted a detailed paper discussing this relationship and this prediction on the SESF Web Site.

I am working on a detailed look at the Sierra’s lack of warming over the last 100 years, to be posted  on the SESF Web Site in January 2007.

Truckee feeling the pain, your pocketbook is next

Russ Steele

I warned you that allowing the legislature to pass laws based on junkscience were going to hit you in the pocketbook. Here is an example just over the mountain in Truckee. Your pocketbook is next!

Christine Stanley writes, Truckee feels heat of new laws, December 19, 2006

Two new pieces of California legislation that target global warming solutions will go into effect Jan. 1, and already the impacts are being felt locally.

The Truckee Donner Public Utility District has proposed signing a 50-year contract to receive coal-powered energy from a power plant in Utah, but if the board doesn't make a decision before the end of the year, the plan will be a wash because of Senate Bill 1368, which limits the term of coal and non-renewable energy contracts to no more than five years.

Without a long-term power contract, utility board members and staff say Truckee rate-payers will be at the mercy of the market and will have to pay nearly twice as much for power than if they purchased fixed-rate energy from the plant in Utah.

So while some see this new legislation as a positive environmental move, others say it won't come without some setbacks.

Peter Holzmeister, general manager of the Truckee Donner Public Utility District recognizes the reality of the legislation.

"It's going to be expensive," Holzmeister said. "We need to be reasonable and patient about some of this because the cost matters. We want to use electricity and we don't want to go bankrupt, so there is a certain practical aspect of this that has to be recognized."

The question is will the companies who have to pay for this expensive power be patient and stay in the California?  Or, will they movie to Nevada, Arizona, Oregon, Utah or Idaho where they do not have carry the burden of junkscience nanny legislation. By their own admission, the Legislature passed this legislation to force the rest of the Nation to adopt California’s junkscience legislation. In the mean time you will carry the burden of this junkscience legislation, as Truckee citizens have discovered. You are next!