NC Media Watch

Global warming not a strategic issue

Russ Steele

I am a big fan of Thomas Barnett's insight, though I do not always agree with his politics, his ability as a strategic thinker is hard to challenge. Here are his thoughts on global warming. He thinks we have more important problems in the Core and Gap that we need to fix first, providing a better cost to benefit ratio for our efforts.  Right, lets fix the faster moving threats, before we tackle slower moving global warming.

Links to Tom's two insighful books are in the left hand column.

Global Warming Update: Two whole degrees?

Russ Steele

The warmers in Sacramento are all worried over a 2 degree increase by 2100, which could cause a tipping point, bringing the world we know it to an end. Yet, we know from paleoclimate records the Sierra was 2-3 degrees warmer in the past, and now we find out the Great Plains were also 2 degrees hotter than today, and that the mean temperature fluctuated over 10 degrees Fahrenheit.   And we are still here?

Today Science News Reports:

While temperature records dating back thousands of years already exist for certain regions of the United States, like the East Coast and the Northwest, no such record exists for the North American Great Plains. But now, a Baylor University researcher along with a team of scientists has developed a new method to measure temperature fluctuations in the Great Plains, creating a temperature record for that area of the country dating back 12,000 years.

ooo

In the Great Plains, Nordt found the annual mean temperature fluctuated about 10 degrees Fahrenheit over the last 12,000 years. Between 12,000 and 7,000 years ago, the annual mean temperature was significantly cooler than what it is today, Nordt said, even though the earth was coming out of an ice age and the sun's intensity on earth was steadily increasing. From 7,000 to 5,000 years ago, temperatures finally warmed to the point that it was about 2 degrees hotter than it is today. It has since gradually declined to present day temperatures.

"The results really surprised us, especially between 12,000 and 7,000 years ago," Nordt said. "Earth temperatures should have been getting warmer during that time, but they weren't. We concluded it was caused by negative feedback from the melting glaciers. The ocean water temperature was colder because the glaciers were melting. That, in turn, caused temperatures to drop."

Nordt said the sun's intensity on earth is the main reason why temperatures generally warmed over the last 12,000 years, but that intensity is now decreasing. Yet temperatures are not decreasing.

Science Daily has the rest of the above story.

I am a little concerned about the last paragraph above.  The sun is now more active than in the last 100 years.  The sun's visible output has not changed much, but the total energy has been steadily increasing over the last 100 years. This output  impacts the number of  cosmic rays striking the earth and may be connected to cloud formation.  A highly active sun limits the number of cosmic rays reaching low altitude regions on the earth, where they promote highly reflective cloud formation. This could account for the rising temperatures, fewer reflective clouds, more sun reaches the surface, increasing temperatures.  More details on this process can be found in my paper on the return of the Dalton Minimum, which can be downloaded from the SESF web site.

More politics before science on Friday

Russ Steele

On Friday the UN will release the next round of climate change scare documents, Assessment Report Number 4, also know as AR4.  AR4 has been called the “smoking gun” by reviewers,  an “explosion of data” proving that humans are the source of global warming. But, we will not see the whole report on the 2nd of February,  just the Summary for Policymakers. We will not get see the technical report, which supports this smoking gun, this explosion of data until May.  Or as Terry Corcoran at the Financial Post said, we will get to see “the smoke without the gun, an explosion of data without the data, .... the proof without the evidence."

This report turns science as we know it on its head. The new UN scientific method is to establish the policy and then adjust the science to fit the politics.  Steve McIntyre at Climate Audit, found this gem on page 4 of the IPCC procedures manual. 

Changes (other than grammatical or minor editorial changes) made after acceptance by the Working Group or the Panel shall be those necessary to ensure consistency with the Summary for Policymakers or the Overview Chapter.

So,  the new scientific method at the UN is to first determine what the "big" conclusions should be, and then spend 3 months "adjusting" the technical report so that it is consistent with the summary for policymakers and with the overview chapter.  Politics before science. 

It is going to be a tough few couple of months.  We are going to be flooded with gloom and doom smoking gun articles in the press, a replay of Al Gore’s movie, with out Al.   My advice is to hunker down until the Climate Auditor’s get a look at the science behind the smoking gun.  I will highlight the audit results here.

 

More on the growing Doctor Crisis

Russ Steele

What is a life worth?  Ask your doctor if you have one.

Barbara Lenore Teuber writes Doctors fail to get their monetary due in Nevada County, January 27, 2007

We hear much about health costs and insurance, but few people are aware of the crisis of doctors in California.

American Thinker asks What is a Doctor Worth?

How much money does your doctor earn?  If your doctor is a Surgeon practicing in rural central California, you're about to find out.

Letter writer is a little late to the Dorsey Drive party

Russ Steele

Where were “we the people” when Measure T was on the ballot? Walking some neighborhoods promoting this transportation sales tax, which could have funded the Dorsey Drive overpass, would have been more effective than the proposed pick and shovel brigade proposed below.

David Ward writes Let's organize, January 27, 2007

We the people of Grass Valley have a proposal for citizens of our area. Create a Citizen's Committee to get at least one off, one on ramp onto State 49 from/to Dorsey Drive. Easier Sierra Nevada Hospital, Sierra College access.

Monies spent with volunteer labor, the donations of the major businesses in Grass Valley/Nevada City to create an 'all-weather turf' in Hooper Stadium at NU, proves that when the need and the public gets behind a project, it happens.

But one has to question a community that thinks “all-weather turf” at Hooper Fields is more important than crumbling transportation infrastructure. The signs have been evident for years, Grass Valley leaders have been unable to make decisions that will eventually  impact us all.  We have needed the overpass for years, we have need to increase the supply of housing, thus reducing the lack of supply  which has been the biggest driver to housing price increases.  Now schools are closing, as young families are moving to lower cost communities.

What if Hansen Brothers, (paving and trucks), Gold-N-Green Rentals and Kubota Tractors, (earth moving equipment) and hundreds of businesses affected as well as thousands of citizens with picks and shovels showed up Saturdays, Sundays, do you think we could create ramps which are more than 20 years overdue to relieve the traffic on East Main Street?

Global Warming Series Update

Russ Steele

BLM and the Forest Service operate a series of Remote Automated Weather Stations. These stations are in remote areas not highly influenced by urban development. More details here.

White Cloud:  This RAWS is located near the White Cloud Ranger Station just off of SR-20.

Google photo, click for a larger image.

Graphic of temperatures, click for a larger image.

Can you see the global warming? I see cooling since 2004. What do you see?   
I will be adding another station every week, until we run our of stations in the Sierra.

Missed opportunity to see leadership in action

Russ Steele

Over the years I have been a major critic of the Board of Supervisor and the need for better leadership.  After sitting in on the BOS Retreat on the 23rd and part of the 24th, I was impressed with the leadership the new BOS demonstrated in two days of team building with the department heads. Without sounding too much like a PR hack, this the best Board we have had, as far back as I can remember. Well, really about 1985 when I started to pay attention.   

I was the only citizen observer on both days.  In the past there were folks from the NCCA, NCBA, and CABPRO who were interested in the future BOS goals and priorities. The business community must be comfortable with this new board.  Since the environmental and green community were not there either, they must comfortable with this board’s goals and priorities also. All segments of the community will have a final say when the new goals and priorities are formalized by board action.  But, sitting in on the retreat could have given everyone insight into what will be on future agendas.

Are you prepared for a pandemic flu?

Russ Steele

Exercises and be instructive and they can be deceptive. When things go wrong they are instructive. When they go as planned, we maybe fooling ourselves that we are prepared for the real thing.

Soumitro Sen writes the County holds drill on bird flu, January 25, 2007

Agencies learn what they need to do if real thing strikes

The outpatient conference room at Sierra Nevada Memorial Hospital was converted on Wednesday into an emergency command center to simulate a bird-flu crisis.

Doctors came in and out of the room with a sense of urgency, while a group of elderly people with blue face masks dangling around their necks sat on one side, talking to each other and reading magazines.

I was one of the folks in the room, and tried to keep my mask on as required, but they were hot and it fogged up my glasses. When I arrived, participating as a simulated sick person,  the staff had there masks hanging around their necks.  At Yuba Docs they kept their mask on the full four hours of the exercise.  Think about wearing it for days.

I also sat in on the exercise recap, filling in for George Rebane who represents the SESF on the planning committee and is on vacation. The comments below are my opinion, they do not reflect the official position of the County, Hospitals,  or other participants.

In my mind this was a successful exercise as it demonstrated we are not prepared to handle a major large scale pandemic disaster in Nevada County.

Breaking News: BOS chamber remodel will move Press to the back of the room

Russ Steele

I was the only member of the public to attend the Board of Supervisors retreat yesterday, though the room was set up to handle about ten citizens observers. I attended some Board of Supervisors retreats in the late 90s, when the” Gang of Four” were in charge.  Yesterday was a totally different experience, the focus was on team building , reviewing accomplishments, setting goals for the coming year, and reviewing budget performance. The Gang of Four retreats were more about getting individual agendas on the table.  Yesterday was less exciting, but more productive in improving the future performance of government services.

I will have more details when the retreat is over. I am not sure how much of the retreat I can attend today, as I am going to be a Pandemic Test Flu Victim at 10:00, with a recap of the test at 2:00.  I hope to make the retreat wrap-up at 4:00. We will see how the day plays out and report on both experiences. 

The breaking news is more physical changes rather than procedural. Ted Owens proposed remodeling the Board Chamber to give the Staff more visibility and make the chamber more video friendly.  The Press currently shares the dais, along the West wall. The proposed remodel will move the Press to the back of the room, at tables similar to those in the Grass Valley Council Chamber. Being less visible, the press and slip in and out without calling attention to themselves.

The Department heads and staff representatives will replace the Press on the West wall dais, so they face the audience and are more visible to the planned three camera video set up.  Long term plans are to stream the meetings in real time video.  Current video is delayed.  The two tables where staff and citizens currently address the Board, with their backs to the room,  will be replace with a podium and flat display table for maps, documents or other large objects brought to the chamber.  The podium will allow the speaker to see the audience, staff, and Board.  This was just a proposal, no action was taken, though it seemed to be warming accepted.

Full day

Russ Steele

The Board of Supervisors are holding a two day retreat today and tomorrow. I will be monitoring all day today, but on Wednesday I will be involved in the Pandemic Flu Exercise the County Health Department is running to test the County's draft plan for handling a pandemic.  My plan is to report on both events.

BOS Agenda here.  Pandemic Test information here.