NC Media Watch

Global Warming Update: UN IPCC AR4 arrives in the dead of night

Russ Steele

The UN IPCC Assessment Report #4 is out, released on Friday just like all government bad news. No press releases, no fanfare just dropped on the world's door step like the mysterious phone book that appears in a plastic bag in your driveway.  The UN had released the Summary for Policy Makers months earlier to great fanfare and promotion.  But, the AR4 report is more science than politics and comes with the uncertainty of a real world defined.   

Now we will get an opportunity to look at the data, the papers, and science fraud embedded in the report.  The folks at Climate Audit are on the job, dissecting the report. The discredited Hockey Stick is still there, as is some dodgy statistical tricks to dampen the  impact of particularly warm or cold periods, again reducing the impact of the MWP. 

Here is what one Expert Peer Reviewer ( Richard S Courtney) of the AR4 draft had to say about the Hockey Stick. 

My review comments included:

“For accuracy and completeness, after “(IPCC, 2001a)” it is very, very important to add:
“However, since the TAR several studies have provided doubt to that work of Mann et al.. Many studies provide data that conflict with the findings of that work of Mann et al. (e.g. Beltrami et al) (ref. Beltrami et al “Long-term tracking of climate change by underground temperatures”, Geophysical Research Letters v.12 (2005) ). In 2005 McIntyre and McKitrick published two papers that together provide a complete refutation of that work of Mann et al. (ref. McIntyre S & McKitrick R, Energy & Environment, v 16, no.1 (2005)) (2005), Geophysical Research Letters Vol. 32, No. 3, (2005)). But, perhaps the most important of their studies of that work of Mann et al. was their publication in 2003 (ref. McIntyre S & McKitrick R, Energy & Environment, v 24, pp 751-771 (2003)) that showed it is not possible to replicate the work of Mann et al. There are several reasons for the inability to replicate this work of Mann et al.; not least that Mann refuses to reveal his source codes. The inability to replicate this work of Mann et al. means it has no scientific worth: i.e. this work of Mann et al. is anecdote of similar kind to a report of a ghost sighting. Hence, the IPCC now apologises for including it in the TAR. The IPCC will now disregard this work of Mann et al. and recommends that all others should also disregard it until it can be – and has been – independently replicated.”

His comment were either ignored or rejected. In the coming weeks we will be hearing from other reviewers and experts.  It is not science unless it can be replicated, it is only politics.  More on AR4 as the  auditors dig in and expose more science fraud.

No more global warming facts wanted at NC Focus

Russ Steele

Anna at NC Focus and I have been having a exchange of views on climate change, but she does not what me to post any more “denialism industry’s talking points,” on NC Focus.  And, to limit my global warming comments to a single sentence. She is just too busy to deal with the facts. Details here.

My closing response to this thread is more than a single sentence long, so I am posting it here.

Dear Anna:
I did not give you a list of denier industry taking points, I gave you a list of peer reviewed papers that recorded the MWP existed world wide.  I am sorry you are too busy to read the studies and let the fact get in the way of your beliefs.  The NOAA reference you gave was a graphic showing Dr. Mann’s iconic hockey stick. The National Academy of Science said,  while Dr Mann’s analysis was “plausible,” he should not have used strip bark bristle cone pines in his data set, which make up the blade of the hockey stick. 

See this graphic presented to the NAS Panel by Steve McIntyre, Climate Audit.
Click for a larger image. MBH is Mann, Bradley and Hughs, who wrote the iconic hockey stick paper used by the IPCC and CalEPA.

Beyond the vanilla blog

Russ Steele

I made a nifty discover last tonight on the Union Blog.  I was having trouble logging in using my regular Safari browser. Looking for solutions, I tried my Foxfire browser. It worked just fine.  But, then when I went to my NC Insight blog to fix a glitch, I discovered that the build in text editor in the Firefox browser works on the Union Blog. Wow! You can change the text size, you can indent, you can change the color of the background, you can change the color of the text. I have not tried to upload a photo though this button is available on the editor. This is going to be lots of fun!  Go to NC Insight and check the bling.

New Dalton Minimum Post

Russ Steele

NOAA has posted their prediction for the next solar cycle, but how accurate that prediction is will be a waiting game.   Check out the details here.

Cottage Industry

Russ Steele

The Economist has some thoughts on working from home and the technology that enables it. We have a lot of home based business in Nevada County, but we need more connectivity of those business to the global and local markets. 

Thoughtful comments on World is Flat post

Russ Steele

Steve Frisch has provied a long comment on my World is Flat book review.  I do not want it to get buried in comments and have brought it forward for your consideration. While Steve and I do not always agree, he makes some points we should all ponder in his comments.

Dear Russ:

I just finished reading Friedmans book in the last few weeks as well. I have long been a Tom Friedman fan, after reading From Beruit to Jerusalem in the late 80's. In the last several years, reading his columns in the New York Times, I have had the sense that he is always a little late to the table, articulating the message of The Lexus and the Olive Tree long after the fruit has fallen.

Friedman is touting the global just as we as a society are rediscovering the local and developing new models to blend the two for the most efficient use of resources.

We are behind in making sure that our local businesses are doing quality business development. But connecting to the global marketplace is only one part of the puzzle, albeit in some industries the most important part. For those in an industry where access to parts for manufacture is essential, just in time theory is valuable.

I would ask how many of your readers in Nevada County are manufacturing a product that is shipped globally? How many are consuming goods produced locally? How many are using services that are provided locally?

Warning! You are about to be scammed

Russ Steele

The Financial Times has investigated the carbon credits business and found nothing but a $100 Billion dollar scam.

Companies and individuals rushing to go green have been spending millions on “carbon credit” projects that yield few if any environmental benefits.

Full story here

As I noted in my presentation on the cost of California’s green house gas regulations:

Carbon credits slide, click for a larger image.

If I were a government employee, or a teacher, would you want your retirement funds invested in a scam?  Really? 

UPDATE:  I was going to post this on my Union Blog, but it is down again.

The World is Flat, the update and expanded version(edited)

Russ Steele

I just finished reading Thomas L Friedman’s The World is Flat, the update and expanded version.  I actually started the book earlier this year, but was distracted by global warming issues.  Friedman’s only reference to Global Warming is a claim that if the President Bush would put the same effort into an alternative energy initiative, as President Kennedy put in to going to the Moon, “he could dry up revenue for terrorism, force Iran, Russia, Venezuela and Saudi Arabia on to the path of reform.”  So, far the current administration has invested $12 Billion in climate change research. How much more would it take? 

The front cover promises a brief history of the 21st Century, and I was looking for a description of the future, but it was really more a catalog of trends and economic forces that are shaping our global economy today.  Some call Friedman a presentist, rather than a futurist, and I would have to agree. He is writing more about what is happening today, but the trends he writes about will have long term impacts on our local economy.  This is an important book and it should be read by our local policy makers. We are currently behind, when it comes to making sure all our local business being connected to the global supply chain. 

When Friedman says the the world is flat he really means connected, and lowering of trade and political barriers and the exponential growth in Internet connectivity.  This connectivity allows users to connect with billion of others, almost instantaneously for collaboration and leading edge business deals. 

I found the supply chain discussion helpful in understand how components can be built around the globe, coming together at a just-in-time factory,  where they are assembled ,  tested, and shipped over night to the customer.  Friedman used his new Dell laptop as an example, tracing where all the parts came from and where they were assembled.

This raises the question, where will Nevada County fit into this global  supply chain in the future?  I recommend that local policy makers read the World is Flat and ask where does Nevada County businesses fit?  How should we fit?  What is our economic role?  I think our role is at the every head end of the chain, innovating and creating new products, then leveraging the strength of the global supply supply chain to produce the final product. But, we will need increased levels of connectivity to remain competitive, and culture and business environment that fosters innovation.

If you would like your own copy, click on the thumb nail in the left side bar and order form Amazon.   

Think about all the consequences before asking for green power

Russ Steele

Green power may ruin pristine land in California, news here.

Tomorrow's Work Space

Russ Steele

SDA developers and Grass Valley City Council take notice. Video here.