NC Media Watch

Anthony and Russ above the fold

Russ Steele

The surveys of the Historical Climate Network sites by Steele and Watts are getting major attention at Climate Audit.

It appears that the "warmers" have made major adjustments to the temperature recorded of these historical sites.  Why, are they making these adjustments?  The "warmers" are making adjustment claims they cannot justify. Why is this important?  Because the historical climate network is the source for the claim we are experiencing global warming. In California the Legislature and  Governor are using this "adjusted data" to justify greenhouse gas regulations that are going to cost the citizens of California Billions.   Yes, billions on unjustifiable "adjusted data." Are you comfortable with this?    

Global warming ringer exposed

I stopped in front of Longs Drug in Glenbrook, where NCTV was video taping person in the street interviews this morning on global warming.  I observed for few minutes and then was asked if I wanted to answer the questions by the interviewer. "Sure," I said.  Then then the camera operator asked, Hey, are'nt you Russ?"  I had to admit I was. "He is a ringer," said  the  camera operator.   "We cannot use a ringer," said the interviewer, and I went on my way.  All the folks at NCTV know my position on global warming, where is it?

However, I could have answered the questions without smirking.  What are you doing to combat global warming, the Interviewer wanted to know?  I would have told her we built an energy efficient home in the 1980s with extra insulation, special isolation, wood stoves for heat, large south facing windows, with tree cover for summer cooling.  Large whole house fan to take advantage of cooler evening temperatures, pre-cooling the house at night. We also have a roof fan to suck the hot air out of the attic, reducing the radiant energy in the house in the late afternoon. We built the house with double pane windows, and sky lights to minimize the need for electric lights. We save water, and the cost of energy to pump water, by keeping the yard in a natural state, no grass and all native drought resistant plants. We use an on demand hot water heater.

We did all this, except for the water heater, before we ever heard of global warming. It was just the right thing to do. Now, If I could just find some global warming in the Sierra.  NCTV did not want some ringer asking the real question, "What global warming?"

UPDATE: Here is a graph of the local global warming. Note it was warmer in the 50s and 60s and that the local trend is flat.  Oh, by the way this is graphic I prepared for NCTV. 

Click for a larger image.

Looking for the big picture

Russ Steele

I am currently reading the Black Swan, by Nassim Nicholas Taleb, who examines the impact of highly improbable events on human history.  Two such recent events include the growth of Google and the events of 9/11. Neither could be predicted or prepared for.  All swans were white, until black swans were discovered in Australia. An unanticipated and highly improbable event for Europeans who had never seen a white swan. I was only a few pages into the Black Swan when this paragraph brought one of those forehead slapping moments. 

“. . . we are just a great machine for looking backward, and that humans are great at self-delusion.”

We humans are always concocting reasons for events that were random and could not be predicted, or for that matter recreated.  Before pickup the Black Swan, I had spent some time thinking about my next book project which explores technology development in Nevada County. This second book project grew out of some articles I wrote for Comstock’s Business on Nevada County on the creation of our local applied technology business cluster. Now that my first book on cobalt mining in Idaho is at the book designer, I will have more time to devote to this project. 

Until reading Taleb, I was focusing on trying to explain a highly improbable chain of event that could be a template for future development. But, I now realize this was a highly improbable event. There was only one Charles Litton Senior who chose to settle in Grass Valley, “because it was the closest place to Jackson Meadows, where a person could buy bread and milk.”  The inadvertent business seeds he planted, which flourished and combined with other critical events, could not be anticipated or planned for. It was a highly improbable event. 

Taleb promises to explain how we all can prepare for our next black swan event and benefit from the unknown, by focusing on the big picture events shaping our world and not on irrelevant and  inconsequential local events. This is some advice for our local economic developers -- look at the BIG picture. Looking in the rear view mirror, and employing self-delusion, is not the path to future prosperity.   More on this theme as I turn the pages in the Black Swan.

Anthony Watts above the fold at Climate Audit

The Climate History Network surveys I have been helping Anthony Watts with have made it to the front page, above the fold, at Climate Audit.  Some additional comments can also be found here, starting with 98.  Actual, you should read the whole post starting with his first discovery. It is interesting that Anthony is uncovering this huge problem in the historical climate data when the California Governor and Legislature are using this data to legislate greenhouse gas reductions. Policies that are going to cost you and I a lot of money. Yet, here is growing proof that the source data is flawed.  Yet, we are being told "the science is known." Right!

And you wondered why we have global warming

Russ Steele

I have been helping Anthony Watts survey Historical Climate Network in California. He visited the Marysville station yesterday and found a real jewel for demonstrating why the temperature record is increasing, as urban growth surrounds the sensor site. He reports his findings here.

Still waiting for the Governor’s Office

Russ Steele

From the Hot House, the Bee’s Global Warming blog:

Some Hot House readers have questioned whether California’s laws to reduce greenhouse gases could result in more dangerous motoring. Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger is now seeking a federal waiver so California can enact a 2002 law requiring reduced emissions from car and trucks sold in the state. One way automakers can comply with the law is to produce and sell lighter, more fuel-efficient vehicles.

“The unintended consequences of this waiver will be many more light-weight vehicles on the road, which will put the divers and passengers at risk, increasing light weight vehicle owner insurance costs, until all the heavy vehicles are replaced over twenty years,” writes reader Russ Steele.

I contracted the Schwarzenegger administration to get a comment on Steele’s concerns, but have so far received no reply. But if you read on, I’ll offer my own two cents on the assertion that increased fuel efficiency endangers motorists. The research to date is more muddled than you might imagine.

Stuart wrote that by reducing speeds to 55 mph and using stronger materials, light weight vehicles would be safe. I wrote in a comment.

American Physical Society:  "To separate the effects of gross vehicle structure from vehicle mass/size, we consider car-to-car head-on collisions. As suggested by Eq(2), the risk of death depends empirically on the ratio of the car masses."  While there the APS report found there are few car-to-car crash fatalities due to improved safety, when it does happen the light vehicle experiences more fatalities than heavy vehicles.

Having stronger materials does not do much for the lighter vehicle when it goes bouncing down the road after a collision. It is mass vs mass. The larger mass wins.

SESF’s TechTest2007 top three winners identified

Russ Steele

This morning Ellen and I had an exciting breakfast at Toffanelli’s with eleven of Nevada County's’ best and brightest students, who are seeking math and science related careers.  The 12th was taking his final exams in Truckee and could not make it to the Sierra Environmental Studies Foundation TechTest2007 Honors Breakfast. Dr. George Rebane, SESF’s Executive Director, welcomed the students and their parents with some kind words about their accomplishments, as it was a tough exam.  “Designed to let the eagles soar,” said George.  The high scores were not expected to exceed 50%, but all three winners did just that.

Mike McDaniel, a fellow board member, handed out “TechTest2007 Survivor” T-shirts to all the scholars.  In the process he announced the top three winners who would receive scholarships on Awards Night at the NUHS on the 6th of June.  However to maintain, the suspense he did not reveal which student would receive the $3,000, $1,500 and $500 scholarship awards, only the top three winners.

George also took the opportunity to offer these future college students some career advice. He suggested they look into the future and consider the convergence of machine intelligence, genetic-engineering and nanotechnology when making their career choices. George thinks the singularity is rapidly approaching and should arrive in the next ten to fifteen years. “Some day soon, machines will be smarter than humans,” said George  “When the singularity arrives, we will have two choices, get on board with the machines, or be prepared to do their bidding.”  This was an eye opening statement for the students who had never heard of “The Singularity.” But,  my guess is they have all looked it up on Google by now. [Well maybe not as NUHS restricts student access to Google, they have to wait until they get home.] Here is a Wikipedia entry. If you want details on your future, click The Singularity Is Near: When Humans Transcend Biology. 

George announced that TechTest2008 awards would be at least $10,000 next year, more if local companies contribute additional funds.  The SESF is a 501 (c) (3), dedicated to the non-partisan and comprehensive analysis of community issues, and the promotion of math and science education. SESF details here.  See you at the TestTech2008 Honors Breakfast.   

Marin County hypocrites

Russ Steele

Just so you know. If Al Gore comes here, be sure to walk to the event. Do not drive your gas guzzling SUV. Details here.

Do we have too much 40 plus thinking?

Russ Steele

I found this comment from CNET interesting and worth bringing to the attention of our economic developers and government leaders.

Red Hat CEO faces generational divide
Posted by Stephen Shankland

SAN FRANCISCO--Red Hat Chief Executive Matthew Szulik, leader of the most influential open-source software company, suffers from a new variety of age discrimination.

"When I walk into a customer (meeting), I always find it amazing--the demographic split," he said in Tuesday a speech at the Open Source Business Conference here. "The people 40 years old are on one side of the table, and they absolutely hate me, and the other side is 25 and under, and I'm pretty cool to them."

MySQL Chief Executive Marten Mickos said in an interview that he's observed a similar phenomenon. People rarely change, he said, so usually the shift to open-source software use comes with the arrival of a new generation of technologists at a company.

A few week ago I posted this comment.

So let me ask, has anyone considered creating a Cousin Jack and Cousin Jenny persona on MySpace and post their adventures in Grass Valley and Nevada City?  Has anyone considered making videos of Grass Valley and Nevada City events and posting them on YouTube?  Has anyone considered creating a Nevada County Travel Bureau on Second Life?   It is time for a little disruptive thinking!

And not one of our local economic development leaders, or government officials concerned about declining tax revenue, commented on my proposal.  I am well over forty, but putting forth ideas that would be on interest to the under 40 folks we need to attract.  Was my idea discarded because it did not fit the over 40 mind set?  Or, no one read it?  Steve Frisch, Sierra Business Council, who lives in Truckee made some interesting comments, but just silence from the local folks. It could be they do not have time to read my ramblings, or thought the idea not worth considering. 

I participated in a Sierra County Economic Development workshop last week, and asked the audience how may people had heard of MySpace and if they had a MySpace account, or if they had watched YouTube videos.  Given the number of over 40 folks in the audience, I was surprised by the number of hands that went up.

As we seek to attract the next generation of the creative classes to Nevada County, first to visit, and then come here as business innovators, we need to get beyond our over 40 thinking and start thinking like the generation we desire to attract.  See you on MySpace

Broadband Meeting

Russ Steele

It was a short but very productive meeting with Jeff Newman,  Partnership Manager,  Business, Transportation and Housing’s in Sacramento yesterday.  Jeff  is advising the Governor’s Broadband Task Force.  Adam Brodel and I reviewed our white paper on using  existing CDF Towers for wireless broadband distribution in rural areas, and will modify it based on Jeff’s suggestions.  He will carry our revised paper forward for consideration by the Task Force. We also discussed the need for the the FCC to allocate more radio spectrum for rural broadband and will be writing another white paper on this issue, in the hope the Governor of the seventh largest economy in the world may have some influence with the FCC.  Under the current plan most of the 700 Mhz spectrum will be auctioned to the highest bidder. This approach ignores the needs of rural wireless Internet service providers (WISPs) who are bringing broadband to rural citizens. The WISPs lack the deep pockets of the cellphone companies. I will write more on these issues as we make progress.