NC Media Watch

Another scientific consensus blown to bit by the facts

Russ Steele

I have been hearing mummers that the theory we humans were responsible for ozone hole was about to challenged. Here is an explanation from the Reference Frame. Read the whole article here, it is rather complex. But this is the bottom line. 

Even though this should have been a good enough reason to make lab experiments with all these compounds, NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory apparently did these experiments only recently. Their experiments were probably not trivial and required some low-temperature engineering. What is their result for the rate of photolysis of Cl₂O₂?
    •    It is almost ten times smaller than needed for the existing ozone hole theories.
That's a huge problem. But only Markus Rex of Potsdam was brave enough to look at the ozone depletion theory with these new data. A lot of things have obviously changed. A dramatic conclusion is that
    •    At least 60% of observed ozone depletion is due to an unknown mechanism.
At least all quantitative features of the models - that have been considered a part of the "scientific consensus" - suddenly become uncertain again. One modest implication is that we certainly no longer know which molecules are actually important for ozone depletion and whether most of this process is due to completely different reasons, perhaps unrelated to chlorine and bromine.

So, how did we arrive at the first consensus. Curve fitting the out put from computer models, just like we are doing for global warming today. From the Reference Frame:

Well, this is curve-fitting and such estimates may often be wrong. As we have repeatedly emphasized, you shouldn't be fitting a few quantities to get a simple description of a complicated system.

And, this exactly what the climate change modelers are doing. If it did not work for ozone depletion, why should it work for global warming climate  models?  Maybe we can get an answer in the comments.

Bursting the climate fear bubble

Russ Steele

Al Gore has done the most to raise global warming fear with his film the An Inconvenient Truth, with rising seas and more powerful and destructive hurricanes. As a benign 2007 hurricane season comes to close, following the less than spectacular 2006 season, the public may smell a rat. Especially if they read the warmers gold standard of climate change information, the latest UN IPCC Report, that reports sea levels will rise only 7 to 23 inches over the next century. Not the 20 feet claimed by Al Gore. From NRO Online:

In the last year or so, the coverage of climate science has gotten more apocalyptic in tone. This is not so much a change in the underlying science as a change in the way it is being communicated to the public. The cap-and-trade proponents have cranked up the gloom and doom for a reason — they essentially had to. The issue in the U.S. was dead in the water without it. Previous efforts to move cap-and-trade bills had been easily defeated, and proponents needed to shake things up. For now, it is working.

But fear is two-edged sword. It can be used to whip up support for action over the near term, but it is hard to sustain for long, especially if it is not well supported by fact. Eventually it could lead to a backlash. Indeed, the global-warming doomsayers may well prove to be their own worst enemy, with their credibility taking a tumble along with the prospects for cap-and-trade legislation.

One over-utilized source, employed in spreading this kind of fear, is supposedly rock-solid “scientific consensus” on global warming, a consensus that has significant outer limits. Virtually everything the public has been told about global warming that sounds terrifying is not true and lies outside that consensus. And what is true and fully accepted by most scientists really isn’t particularly terrifying.

More details in the this NRO Report by Ben Lieberman a senior policy analyst at the Heritage Foundation’s Roe Institute for Economic Policy Studies.

Of course failing to engage is not helping Al Gore's image. This from TCS Daily: Gore Dodges Repeated Calls to Debate Global Warming

As over 150 heads of state and government gather at UN headquarters in New York to discuss climate change, former Vice President Al Gore, the most prominent proponent of the theory of the human-induced, catastrophic global warming, continues to refuse repeated challenges to debate the issue.

Czech President Vaclav Klaus, who addressed the General Assembly on climate change September 24, is but the latest global warming skeptic to receive the cold shoulder from Gore. In ads appearing in the Wall Street Journal, New York Times, and Washington Times, Klaus has called on Gore to face him in a one-on-one debate on the proposition: "Global Warming Is Not a Crisis." Earlier in the year, similar challenges to Gore were issued by Dennis Avery, director of the Center for Global Food Issues and senior fellow at the Hudson Institute, and Lord Monckton of Brenchley, a former adviser to British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher. All calls on the former vice president to face his critics have fallen on deaf ears.

The Heartland Institute, a Chicago-based free-market think tank, launched the debate campaign in April, using ads, press releases, and other tactics to prod Gore into confronting those who reject his alarmist views on global warming.

Al Gore can run and hide, but for how long, especially with the public smelling a rat.

Another nail in the human caused global warming coffin

MorRuss Steele

Consider this recent study by USC:

USC College researcher shows that deep-sea temperatures rose 1,300 years before the buildup of atmospheric carbon dioxide, ruling out CO2 as driver of the last ice age’s meltdown.

“There has been this continual reference to the correspondence between CO2 and climate change as reflected in ice core records as justification for the role of CO2 in climate change,” said paleoclimatologist Lowell Stott, the study’s lead author and a professor of earth sciences at USC College.

“You can no longer argue that CO2 alone caused the end of the ice ages.”

Deep-sea temperatures warmed about 1,300 years before the tropical surface ocean and well before the rise in atmospheric CO2, the study found. The finding suggests the rise in greenhouse gas was likely a result of warming – but not its main cause."

My emphasis added. Details here.

More coffin nails here

Tour of Nevada County Update

Russ Steele

At the first annual Tour of Nevada County I followed the tour with a digital camera and laptop, posting some of the highlights on the ERC Blog. We are going to follow along again this year and take photos and posting them during the day. This year I am fortunate to have WiFi access at the Fair Grounds, and I will not have crawl under the counter looking for an Internet connection like last year. I have also made arrangements to send pictures from the Airport Reception Office. Other times, I will use the some of the free WiFi access in Grass Valley and Nevada City to send the pictures.

Bus riders will be challenged with trivia contest by the Tour guides on their buses. I will post these trivia questions on the ERC Blog after the tour starts. I do not want to give anyone an early advantage. Log into the ERC Blog and see how well you know Nevada County and watch the tour progress.  Answers to the trivia questions will be provided once the tour is over.

Here is a link to the ERC Blog.

IBD: Mr Global Warming was on the take

Russ Steele

Who would have thought that James Hansen was on George Soros' payroll.  Well according to Investors Business Daily, Hansen received $720,000 in support from Soros' Open Society Institute's politicization of science project.  So, now we know that global warming is not science but politics. 

How many people, for instance, know that James Hansen, a man billed as a lonely "NASA whistleblower" standing up to the mighty U.S. government, was really funded by Soros' Open Society Institute , which gave him "legal and media advice"?

That's right, Hansen was packaged for the media by Soros' flagship "philanthropy," by as much as $720,000, most likely under the OSI's "politicization of science" program.
That may have meant that Hansen had media flacks help him get on the evening news to push his agenda and lawyers pressuring officials to let him spout his supposedly "censored" spiel for weeks in the name of advancing the global warming agenda.

Hansen even succeeded, with public pressure from his nightly news performances, in forcing NASA to change its media policies to his advantage. Had Hansen's OSI-funding been known, the public might have viewed the whole production differently. The outcome could have been different.

More details here.

A regular commenter on this blog has written that any funding of global warming skeptics by EXXON, or any right wing group discredits the author, or authors, and any scientific papers they write. Should funding by a left wing organization, like the Open Society Institute, discredit James Hansen's published works?   It was purchased science, under the commenter's definition and should not be considered credible. So, it is time to review the bidding.  Is all this global warming hysteria just purchased science?
Please keep an open mind, and do not let the $250,000 Hansen got from the the charitable foundation headed by former Democrat Presidential candidate John Kerry’s wife, Teresa Heinz, sway your thinking.
It may be a hoax.

This is going to be an interesting fall if this IBD article is true.    

More than cooling the climate, it is about controlling you

Russ Steele

Here is part of a quote on Sierra Musings, a Union Blog by SierraKate.

"In 2000, after a hard-sell, they [Citizens of Lassen County]  approved an initiative that seemingly gave the green light to this [Dyer Mountain] development. However, since then, AB 32, California's landmark global warming bill was passed, and this bill promises to influence all major land-use decisions in the state. Attorney General Jerry Brown has been vigorous in using this law to fight greenhouse gasses in California, and he will undoubtedly have his eyes on the Lassen Board of supervisors in the coming weeks. A development of this magnitude and nature only ensures the type of sprawl that accelerates global warming, making lack of snow an even worse problem. Lassen County, in anticipation that they will be sued over this ill planned development, has already procured counsel."

Let's review the bidding. The people of Lassen County want the development. Sierra Kate and her environmental fellow travelers do not want the development and want the AG Jerry Brown to use greenhouse gas regulations to stop the it. You think that AB32 is about saving us from global warming, not really it is about controlling your life, making sure you will conform to the liberal agenda. It is about controlling your life!

Audit finds 20th Century warming not unusual

Russ Steele

Steve McIntyre at Climate Audit audited the work of Osborn and Briffa (two examples here and here )  and found major problems with the data handling, now Gerd Bürger has published yet another audit of Osborn and Briffa in Science and found their claims of unusually 20th Century warming in error.  More details at Climate World Report.

A recent issue of Science contains an article not likely to receive any press coverage at all. Gerd Bürger of Berlin’s Institut für Meteorologie decided to revisit the work of Osborn and Briffa, and his results raise serious questions about the claim that the 20th century has been unusually warm. Bürger argues that Osborn and Briffa did not apply the appropriate statistical tests that link the proxy records to observational data, and as such, Osborn and Briffa did not properly quantify the statistical uncertainties in their analyses. Bürger repeated all analyses with the appropriate adjustments and concluded “As a result, the ‘highly significant’ occurrences of positive anomalies during the 20th century disappear.” Further, he reports that “The 95th percentile is exceeded mostly in the early 20th century, but also about the year 1000.” Needless to say, Gerd Bürger is not going to win any awards from the champions of global warming – nothing is more sacred than 20th century warming! [Emphasis added]

Another view of Bürger's Science article at The Reference Frame.

The competitive world is truly flat

Russ Steele

I was writing up profiles of the companies on the Tour of Nevada County, which will take place on Thursday September 27th,  and was thinking about how competitive they are in a world described by Thomas L. Friedman in his book The World is Flat. About half way through the profiles, this dropped in to my e-mail box from China. An example of the competition that local companies face from half way around a flat world. 

-Dear.Sir/&.Madam:

-    We are engineering firm located in South China. We are looking for
customers. Our services are uniquely one stop support for small firms in
around world, which are also cost effective & with good quality, especially
for small batch production:

A-1. Micro Electronic Product Engineering:

   MCU developing & programming
   PCB layout & prototyping
   Module solutions & low volume production
   Device: whole box engineering & assembly

A-2. Chemical Compound Molecular Formula

   Research and low volume production (from 1 ml. or mg.)

B. High Mix & Low volume production:

   Precision parts machining(aluminum,copper and stainless steel);
   Micro electronic device and PCBA (PCB assembly);

   Part of products we produced include:

   GPS navigator/locator,RF module,GSM/CDMA module, industrial modem,Bluetooth
   earphone,Bluetooth communication module,Magnetic navigation, Solar battery
   charger for laptop,wireless solar ads.poster,consumer products (digital camera,
   MP4,vedio player)...

C. Outsourcing engineering for mass production project

   Our practices include:

c-1 Qualification (supported with evidences)
c-2 Project flow chart enable;
c-3 Net 30 payment mode arrangement
c-4 Whole plant relocation to China

   For more details, please send email to [email protected]

In 1996, while workings as Nevada County Community Network I got a similar e-mail from from a PhD Computer Scientist in India. He was looking for software programming  work for himself and six team members, all college graduates, some with Masters Degrees. They offered to work for $6.50 and hour on our software projects. In retrospect, I should have challenged them to develop a billing systems for ISPs. But, at the time we could not even afford their extremely low rates. In an Internet connected world, Nevada County businesses competition is not down the road, it is half way around a flat world.

Real time Tour of Nevada County Thursday

Russ Steele

In The Union this morning Greg Moberly gets an early start reporting on the Tour of Nevada County, sponsored by the Economic Resource Council.

Export economics: Tour shines light on manufacturing sector in the area

Export manufacturing makes up about 10 percent of the economy in Nevada County, making it an important sector — especially as local leaders look for ways to diversify an economy that depends heavily on real estate and construction.

The Nevada County Economic Resource Council is offering a tour Thursday of two manufacturers that produce goods for export out of the area. It’s the second year the nonprofit economic development group has offered tours highlighting key community
businesses.

On the First Annual Tour of Nevada County, I did some real time reporting on the ERC's Blog and will try again this year to do some on the road reporting of the event. I will use my WiFi equipped digital camera, Powerbook and the local WiFi network to report on the tour.

I will be testing the process the rest of this week getting prepared for the event on Thursday, which starts with coffee and rolls at the Fair Grounds, a gourmet lunch, and wine reception at the end of the tour, all at the Fair Ground. As Moberly points out the tour will visit Maier Manufacturing, Benchmark Thermal and Nevada County Air Park. Also, on the tour will be Ensemble Design, the Nevada City Tech Park and 2Wire which recently expanded into the new Tech Park. Book mark this link so your can follow the tour on Thursday.

The Next Solar Cycle is Late

Russ Steele

I have written about the slow start of the next sun spot cycle at the Dalton Minimum Returns. The current solar cycle, Cycle 23, is the longest since the early part of the 20th century. Sun spot cycles range from 9 years 8 months to 13 years, with an average of 11 years. Cycle 22 was 9 years and 8 months.  Cycle 21 was 10 years, 3 month, thus both were shorter than the average 11 years, and we experienced some warm years. Currently cycle 23 is now at 11 years 4 months and the solar minimum has yet to be reached, indeed there have been no signs of cycle 24 starting.

Estimates for the next cycle to start range from March 2008 to November 2008. You can see the implication in this chart, the longer the cycle the cooler the northern hemisphere has been in the past. There is no indication that this historical cycle will be broken in the near future. Note that from 1970 on, the cycles have been quite short and this consistent with the 20th century warming.  At 11 years 4 month, we are already moving toward a much cooler period in the normal variation of hemispheric temperature. In the early 1800s when the cycle was 12 years 7 months, the temperature anomaly was -0.4C below the average. It could get real cold, real soon now, but we are going to have to wait for the oceans to cool before we see too much local cold weather. However the southern hemisphere was quite cold this winter, but one year does not make globe cooling, yet the satellite temperature trend is for cooling.  We will soon know if the current solar cycles and the global temperature are linked, as they have been in the past.