Russ Steele
I have written often that climate models are flawed and should not be used to justify global warming mitigation policy in California. Here is the view of an expert, Dr William Gray an Professor Emeritus of Atmospheric Science at Colorado State University with a Ph.D. degree from the University of Chicago in Geophysical Science. He is a leading climate expert known for his seasonal Atlantic basin hurricane forecasts and has recently written a paper, We Are Not in A Climate Crisis. Here is small segment on climate modeling:
These GCM models should not be relied upon to give global temperature information 50 to 100 years in the future where model verification in the lifetime of the model builders is not possible. These GCM modelers do not dare make public short-period global temperature forecasts for next season, next year, or a few years hence. This is because they know they do not have short range forecast skill. They would lose credibility if they issued forecasts that could actually be verified. These climate modelers live largely in a ‘virtual world’ of their own making where reality and model skill is determined largely by the modelers themselves. The climate models are so complicated that it takes teams of specialists to construct all of the various model components. No one person well understands any model’s complete numerical package. No independent outside person would ever know enough to realistically evaluate the model’s outputs. They are just giant black boxes telling us that humans are warming the globe at a dangerous rate. The fact that nearly all the GCMs give similar results (global warming of 2-5oC for a doubling of CO2 near the end of the 21st century) should not increase our confidence in these models. They all have similar flaws. For many modelers it appears that grant support and media coverage are more important than model reality.
Full paper can be downloaded here: Download ClimateCrisis.doc
I strongly agree with Dr. Gray's final paragraph.
I believe that in the next few years the globe is going to enter a modest cooling period similar to what was experienced in the 30-years between the mid-1940s and the mid-1970s. I am convinced that in 15-20 years we will look back on this period of global warming hysteria as we now look back on other popular and trendy scientific ideas that have not stood the test of time.