Russ Steele
Well here is one reason for worrying about the cooling trend in the Pacific. Here are the details in this abstract from a study that will appear in the Spring issue of Climate Research.
Influence of climate variability on wine regions in the western USA and on wine quality in the Napa Valley by Gregory V. Jones* and Gregory B. Goodrich
ABSTRACT: Trends in climate variables important to winegrape production in the western United States include fewer frost days, longer growing seasons and higher spring and growing season temperatures. These trends have been related to a steady increase in wine quality and a decrease in year to year variability. While the trends in climate have been linked to increasing sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the eastern Pacific, it is unknown whether this is caused by climate change or may be part of natural oscillations in the Pacific. In this study, fifteen climate variables important to winegrape production were analyzed for ten wine regions over the western USA. The variables were stratified by phases of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) both separately and then in combination (modulation effect) to determine if there are any significant differences between teleconnections. Wine Spectator vintage ratings for Cabernet Sauvignon wines from the Napa Valley were also stratified in the same method and multivariate statistics were used to determine which variables are most important to wine quality. ENSO phase by itself was not found to be important to either climate variability in wine regions in the western USA or wine quality in Napa Valley, but the cold phase of the PDO was found to be associated with increased spring frosts and a shorter growing season that results in lower ratings relative to warm PDO. The combination of neutral ENSO conditions during the cold phase of the PDO was nearly always associated with low quality wine in the Napa Valley, which is a function of cold springs with increased frost risk, cool growing seasons, and ripening period rainfall (cold PDO) and above average bloom and summer rainfall (neutral ENSO). While climate trends to generally warmer growing seasons with less frost risk have occurred, this research highlights the impact of climate variability on wine quality where, should the PDO return to a multi-decadal cold phase, wine growers in the Napa Valley and across the western USA will likely experience greater variability in wine quality.
In 1977 the PDO shifted to a warm phase. In 2007 weather experts are beginning to agree, the Pacific is shifting to a cold phase. It may take a few years to be sure, but the current La Nina is strengthening, and in the scheme of things the timing is right for a shift. The Canadian Prairies are in DEEP FREEZE (-35 to -45C), like they experienced in the early 70s before a PDO warm shift in 1977. This is a typical La Nina pattern. The NW has been rained on all summer, that is continuing through the fall, again another La Nina pattern.
If the Napa valley wine growers are at risk during a cool PDO, think
about the local wine growers much higher up the mountain. Most of the
growth in our local wine industry came after the warm PDO shift in the
late 1970s, and has grown during the 30 year warm phase. Napa and Sonoma Valleys of northern California,
grape growers benefited from the modest warming of 1.13°C from 1951 to 1997 and a 20 day reduction in frost. Now that we
have a cool phase coming on our local wine industry is at risk, and Napa will struggle in cold years. Don't
thinks so, let me hear your reasons.
