NC Media Watch

Predictions for 2008

Russ Steele

Happy New Year

My predictions for the the New Year -- 2008

1) More global warming skeptics will come forward as the weather turns colder, due to a shift in the Pacific Ocean to a cool phase.  The satellite global temperatures will continue to decline, while the surface temperatures continue to increase due to urban heat island effects. These contaminated temperature records will continue to support claims of global warming, all the while  the arctic sea ice will increase in 2008 and mountain glaciers will slowly start growing again.

UPDATE: From the Investors Business Daily, via ICECAP Global Warming 'Consensus' Fades.

2) The official start of Sunspot Cycle 24 will be delayed another year, indicating cycle 24 will be minimum cycle. Historically minimum cycles have produced cooler temperatures on earth, all thought the specific mechanism is not clear.

3)  Yearly average prices of gas and diesel will continue to climb as the State levies new fuel taxes to control green house gases. These increases will slow local tourism which will add to the local economic decline. Increased fuel prices will promote more Internet shopping, which will be supported as a greenhouse gas reduction measure by the Air Resources Board, creating an ever steeper decline in the local economy.

4) Local economics and greenhouse gas regulations will become major issues in local city and County elections, yet few voters will see the real connection. Ballots will be cast on emotional issues, rather than vote the scientific evidence. There has been no significant warming trend in the Sierra, most of California's warming is in the liberal coastal counties.

5)  Nate Beason will be re-elected in the 1st District and Ted Owens in District 5, they are proven leaders regardless of contrary claims. I do not know enough about the 2nd District candidates to venture a prediction. Perhaps an update will be in order after the campaigning starts. 

6) The tribal warfare will continue in Nevada City over the Downtown Association strategy and fees. A tightening economy will increase the intensity of the warfare.

7) Grass Valley City Council actions will continue to reveal they cannot live up their vision of Grass Valley becoming Western Nevada County's center of commerce.  Their actions will speak louder than their words.

8) The Union will continue to struggle with the web software levied by the mother ship in Reno. Some days it works, some days it doesn't. Makes every new day an adventure.

9) The Union Editor will break his New Years resolution to not post comments on local conservative blogs.

10) Local blogs will become more powerful in shaping local public opinion, thus providing an alternative to the almost news. According to a resent Media Democracy survey, user-generated content is in tremendous demand across the generations, with 51 percent all consumers watching and/or reading content created by others, it jumps to 71 percent for younger readers.

Nevada County Economic Strategy follow up

Russ Steele

I was interested in why the construction industry was listed in the Seifel report as a recruiting target, and have started asking questions. It just does not make much sense to invite more contractors to a community that already has over 500 general contractors.  I have an interview scheduled with the Contractors Association on Wednesday, details will be posted here. The NCCA was not interviewed by the Seifel consultants.

While asking questions I found out that the Hospital expansion was, and the current Sierra College expansion, were contracted to Tuner Construction from Sacramento. Turner determined that all of the 500 plus contractors in Nevada County were unqualified to be subcontractors on the Sierra College construction. The reasons vary, but it seem to me the real issue is they were not unionized contractors. When the College was asking for our vote, they were promising they would use some local contractors. So, we have had a little voter bait and switch by the college who did not meet their commitments. It is going to be harder to get my vote next time. I do not like bait and switch. Once was enough for me.

As recommended by the Seifel Report, it seems we have imported Turner Construction to our community, but I am having a hard time seeing the economic benefits. The money goes back to Sacramento. Millions in bond dollars are being spent in Nevada County, but none of it stays here as it all goes back to Sacramento, where Turner and the union subcontractors are based.  The College and the Hospital are in Grass Valley.  Where was the outrage from Grass Valley's political leaders?

Speaking of The Union, who's Editor like to discuss economic issues, where were they on this issue? They do not seem to be supporting for our local constructions industry.  Would some community outrage have changed Turner's decision not to use any local subcontractors?  Would some community outrage changed the Colleges decision to not honor their commitments to use some local contractors?  Apparently this whole mess is under The Union's radar. Why?   

Still Working on Predictions for 2008

Russ Steele

I will finish up my 2008 Predictions as Ellen and I watch the New Year approach on the TV, toasting in the new year with some adult beverages. I will post my predictions before we do too many toasts.   

2008 Weather Forecast and La Nina Update

Russ Steele

AccuWeather's Brett Anderson on the Global Warming Blog has a nice La Nina update for 2008:

Current sea surface anomalies from the Pacific, courtesy of NOAA. (Note the large area of colder than normal sea surface water covering a large part of the equatorial Pacific). Stronger than normal easterly winds over the region push warmer surface waters westward, while allowing colder water to upwell from the South American Pacific coast and expand westward near and along the equator. 

The latest NOAA forecasts predict that the La Nina will strengthen and perhaps reach record level by spring. If this forecast holds up, this is the weather we can expect in 2008 according to Brett's analysis.

-- Very strong Pacific jet stream should deliver many more storms to the West coast, especially from northern California up through southern BC.

Arctic air only makes brief visits into the lower 48 and pretty much hangs out from Alaska through northern Canada and down toward northern BC and Alberta.

--Southeastern U.S. high pressure ridge stays strong and keeps much of the southern states warmer than normal, with the Southeast remaining drier than normal.

--Central Plains to the Northeast U.S. milder than normal.

--Midwest/Great Lakes into Ontario/Quebec continue to see more storms than normal, but even though it's milder than normal snowfall remains above-normal.

A libertarians views on global warming

Russ Steele

Edward Townes writes Anthropogenic Global Warming is Nonsense in an effort to dispel some of the global myths surrounding global warming.  Myths we have discussed here in previous posts. He is spot on, especially in his discussion of climate modeling.

Predictions for 2008

Russ Steele

Jeff Pelline, The Union Editor, out lines his predictions for 2008 in his column: Predictions for the New Year. Though I have disagreed with past predictions by the Union Editors, I think that Jeff has hit closer to the mark this year. I am working on my list of predictions and it is not quite ready yet, but I will have my top five before the years end, maybe the top ten if I include my predictions for the Union. Still cogitating about how useful that would be.

Union Editorial Board on Economic Development (edited)

Russ Steele

The Union writes in A new approach to economic growth

County supervisors probably didn't like what they heard from a recent 73-page economic report that was released earlier this month. Mostly, we suspect, because it suggested that there has been a lack of cohesiveness and leadership when it comes to cultivating and recruiting the kind of businesses that do and can pay the kind of wages necessary for families to live in this expensive slice of paradise.

What I heard on the street last night was the County did not like the original report and demanded an extensive re-write. The first author quit half way through the report and started his own consulting business, and the consulting firm's owner Libby Seifel had to finish and deliver the report. So, it would appear that the Supervisor were not surprised by the release of this report. It appears they may have had some input to the final document.

The Union Editorial Continues:

"You need to focus on business attraction, and you haven't done much," said Libby Seifel, author of that county-financed study. The county should target higher-paying businesses such as information services, which have "significant" growth potential, along with professional services and health care, the study said.

You know the Union is not telling the whole story. This is the third story on this report and every time the Union failed to mention that the report recommended the County should also target the construction  industry. Here is the list of business targets from the report, just so you will know the facts.

The target industries and business clusters listed below were selected using the analytical
techniques described in the body of the report:

• Construction
• Finance and insurance
• Professional services
• Health care services
• Information services

The report explains why the construction businesses should focus on green building to help reduce greenhouse gases.

Nevada County should attract a network of diverse construction related establishments, including  manufacturers, building suppliers and green building companies that can provide for the  comprehensive needs of the building industry.

I looked in the Nevada County Contractor Associations Directory and I found 123 contractors listed, many in the green and solar business as recommended by consultant as target businesses.  This report was done from high above the city of San Francisco using "analytical techniques" with little insight to local conditions. I would like to see the list of people the consultant interviewed for this report. If they had spent a little more time they would have found out that most of our local high tech businesses were grown -- not imported. The Consultant did not recognize that information services require redundant communication paths, and we have limited industrial areas in Western Nevada County where AT&T and Comcast can provide these redundant broadband communication services. And, when this report was written non existed, as it is only is the last few months that Comcast has offered business Internet services.

When it comes to development sites the consultant did not list the Gold Flat Road Complex and totally missed the County's newest and most innovative business Telestream.  Dan Castles, the President,  could have provided some real insight in the recruiting of employees and businesses to the area.  He gave a great presentation to the ERC Board at our last meeting. Real hands on stuff, not "analytical techniques." 

The Union might want to read a recent study of business relocation in California by the Public Policy Institute of California. The main reasons for the relocation were economics, to increase efficiency,  productivity, and profits.  They found that companies moved to reduce employee and owner commute times, to be closer to suppliers, to reduce transportation costs, and to find lower cost real estate when expanding. Also, most of the intrastate moves were over short distances, just one county over. Now the real question is where does Nevada County fit in to this California relocation picture?  The Seifel report does not say.

 
 

Surface Station Survey findings support Michaels Study(edited)

Russ Steele

Patrick Michaels writes in the American Spectator this morning, that the planet has only warmed half as much as claimed by the UN IPCC. Pointing to Urban Heat Islands caused by economic development and bias in the historical records caused by poor maintenance, station moves, and competence of the observer. My work, and the work of others, on Anthony Watts' station survey project supports Michaels study of climate measurement bias.

  Michaels writes:

We noted that other types of bias must still be affecting historical climate records. What about the quality of a national network and the competence of the observers? Other factors include movement or closing of weather stations and modification of local land surfaces, such as replacing a forest with a cornfield.

When this Nevada City station was moved from Pioneer Park to the Water Plant the minimum temperature jumped two degrees higher on average after the move. Details here.

When we surveyed weather stations located at Forest Service and Fire Stations, during the interview we learned that it was the "new guy" who got to go out in the rain and snow to measure the temperature.  The guy/gal with the least experience was taking the temperature.
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Michaels writes:

Weather equipment is very high-maintenance. The standard temperature shelter is painted white. If the paint wears or discolors, the shelter absorbs more of the sun's heat and the thermometer inside will read artificially high. But keeping temperature stations well painted probably isn't the highest priority in a poor country.

This station is from the USDA Agricultural Station at Brawley California. This survey photo was made by my friend Bob Wiederrick. It does not look like painting shelters is a high priority at the USDA.

Later this week, Anthony Watts will have more on how important shelter painting can be to temperature measurements. He has been running some experiments.  Here is a preview at Watts Up With That.

Productivity, not the quality of life, are relocation factors

Russ Steele

I have been studying the Seifel Study of Western Nevada County Economic Development Strategy and researching come of the conclusions.  (Download r_nevadaed1.pdf) The report says that Nevada County should use our superior quality of life as an inducement for companies thinking about relocating.  As a matter of fact, the consultant makes this point time and time again in the report. Yet, most relocations are business decisions not quality of life decision. There are exceptions for single and couple owned business, but these are not the kind of businesses the Seifel study is suggested Nevada County should be recruiting.

A recent (2007) study of California Business Relocation by the Public Policy Institute of California: Business Location Decisions and Employment Dynamics in California. (Download R_1107JKR.pdf) The PPIC  researchers looked at interstate and intrastate business relocations over the past 15 years. They report that California has lost few job to other states due to the California business climate. However, rural counties suffered more than urban counties when losses did occur.

Chapter Five of the IPPC report covers the intrastate moves, from one county to another. The Seifel report suggests we try to lure Sacramento companies to Nevada County. The report found that most counties relocation moves were over a short distance, just one county over. For example, Placer and El Dorado gained over a 1,000 jobs from Sacramento County. The dominate reason for these short moves was to be closer to productivity-enhancing business clusters, or cheaper real estate. No where in this report did I read that the quality of life played a significant role in the move decisions. The main reasons were about reducing cost, or increasing productivity, not the quality of life.

Merry Christmas and Happy Holiday

Russ Steele

Merry Christmas 2007 from the Steele Family