NC Media Watch

Your are invited to a Tea Party

Russ Steele

Kim Pruett sent along this invitation.

Click for a larger image, or you can down load a pdf file: WELCOME TO THE NEVADA COUNTY

You will find more information on the Tea Party Patriots here.

Truckee grows the rest of county loses

Russ Steele

The state Department of Finance reports the state's population grew by 409,000 during the year, reaching 38,293,000, based on its calculation of statistical indices. Here are the latest January 2008 and 2009 estimates for our part of the State.  

                                  

                                    2008       2009    Change
Nevada County           98,874    98,718      -0.2   
Grass Valley                12,891    12,817      -0.6   
Nevada City                 3,065      3,043      -0.7   
Truckee                      16,113    16,241       0.8   
Balance Of County      66,805    66,617      -0.3   

Where are those growth restricting initiatives when you need them?

California citizens are standing up and being counted

Russ Steele

When the folks in Sacramento proved they could not lead, they tossed the problem into the peoples lap with a bunch of initiatives 1A - 1F. Now the the people are sending the problem back to Sacramento for resolution. 

It is really quite simple, just do not spend more than tax revenues generate. Something that most families understand, they cannot spend more than the family income. Yes, there are few that think plastic is real money, but reality soon sets in when they hit their credit cards limit.  It is time to tell Sacramento they have reached their credit limit.    

When community leaders do not pay attention -- crap happens

Russ Steele

The Nevada City community of complainers seems to be up in arms over Caltrans detouring trucks down SR-20 while they repair I-80. Well that is the message on the former Union Editor's blog. I have not heard any complaints on KNCO, or in the comments on some of the other local blogs. It seems to be a Nevada City issue.  And then there is this quote in the Union:

“Their objective was, they didn’t want us to know about it,” said Nevada City Vice Mayor Reinette Senum, a vocal critic of the detour.

What bunch of crap!  Nevada City Council Member Sally Harris is a member on the Commission, did she forget to inform the Vice Mayor about the detour?  The Transportation Commission meetings are public meetings. However, it is true that the public and the local media ignore these public meetings. So, what is the problem?  Where were the Nevada City Highway 49 complainers when these issues were presented,  and their input might have had an impact? Really? They had their heads were where?  

Let me be real clear, Caltrans made every effort to inform the public of this detour. They discussed the project at multiple Transportation Commission Meetings. The Commission published the project in the NCTC Newsletter.  Caltrans held workshops and hardly anyone showed up. The project and detour is on the Caltrans web site. It is on Call 511. Yea, they were trying to hide it by publishing it every where they could. Listen up Nevada City, crap happens when you are not paying attention. Stop worrying about global warming and start worrying about the things that really impact peoples lives. You know, like truck traffic. 

Update#1:  Ch-13 had some video clips from a Caltrans Outreach meeting held at City Hall in Nevada City tonight. It looked rather contensious. We also learned that Caltrans sent 100s of letters to people living along SR-49 and SR-20.  Did people ignore these letters?   Why?  That does not support the claim that Caltrans was trying to hide something?

Congressman Holt: Congress avoids science in policy making!

Russ Steele

Representative Rush Holt, New Jersey’s 12th Congressional District, wants to rehabilitate the Office of Technology Assessment. He has a PhD in Physics from New York University. After hearing the President has placed science and scientific process at the heart of his public policy and decision making Holt writes in a Wired Op-Ed:

It is time for Congress to do the same by restoring a once robust science resource to its rightful place: the Office of Technology Assessment.

With so much on our agenda, every member of Congress needs access to unbiased technical and scientific assessments finished in a time frame appropriate for Congress, written in a language that is understood by members of Congress, and crafted by those who are familiar with the functions of Congress. The issues have grown more complex, but our tools to evaluate and understand them have not kept pace.

The question is would members of Congress use the science, even if they had access to the scientific information and it was written so any sixth grader could understand it?  As George Rebane points out at Rebane's Ruminations for human caused global warming, it is all about politics and not the science.

As Representative Holt notes:

Among the 535 members of Congress, there are three physicists, one chemist, six engineers, and one microbiologist. Most members of congress avoid science at all costs, and the handful of trained scientists cannot and do not try to inject the scientific thinking on the particulars of every issue. (Emphasis added.)

Ice, ice and more ice

Russ Steele

Doug Keachie who blogs from Ski The Far Stars left a comment that it was not the extent of the Arctic ice that was important, it was the thickness.  Now we know that the Arctic ice is 100% thicker than was originally assumed by polar scientists. The details are in a flying ice survey reported at Watts Up With That, taken from a German radio report.

The research aircraft Polar 5 “ended today in Canada’s recent Arctic expedition.  During the flight, researchers have measured the current Eisstärke [ice thickness] measured at the North Pole, and in areas that have never before been overflown. Result: The sea-ice in the surveyed areas is apparently thicker than the researchers had suspected.

Normally, ice is newly formed after two years, over two meters thick. “Here were Eisdicken up to four meters,” said a spokesman of Bremerhaven’s Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research.

Here is the latest sea ice extend.

It is clear that Arctic ice extent is approaching the average and that the sea ice is twice as thick as anticipated. I hope this calms Doug Keachie's fears that Arctic ice melting is accelerating. It appears to be exactly the opposite. More and thicker ice seems to indicate a colder Arctic.

You should get to know PDO

Russ Steele

The StormX weather team has an excellent discussion of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and it's long term impact on our weather and climate for the next twenty to thirty years. These changes could have an impact on our climate here in Nevada County,  shorter growing seasons and more snow in the winter.

The average PDO index from April 2008 to March 2009 was -1.46, the third lowest yearly averaged March value since 1900, trailing only March of 1956 and 1951.  For the next two or three decades, North Pacific SST anomalies will favor the negative phase, and will likely produce exceptional climate patterns and weather events that have not been observed in more than three decades.

I remember the 1950s here on Banner Mountain we had some really deep snows, the winter of 53-54 we had six feet of snow in there storms over five days.  In the late 1800s and early 1900s my great Uncle Frank talked about the winters on Banner Mt when they had to dig tunnels in the snow from the house to the barn to feed the cows.

Pondering Problems with Computer Climate Models

Russ Steele

A Note from Michael Hammer at Jennifer Marohasy's Blog on some problems with current the climate models. These models have been around long enough for use to compare the output with the forecast climate change. 

SCIENTISTS have put a huge amount of effort into generating computer models of our climate system.  These models are very sophisticated and complex and their outputs suggest that increasing carbon dioxide will lead to significant temperature rises for our planet.  Indeed the model outputs now represent the main evidence in support of the anthropogenic (man induced) global warming hypothesis.   Why shouldn’t we take careful note of these results?

Yes, why do we not pay more attention how well the models correlate to real world temperatures.
using the most reliable data that we have.

Over the last century, from 1900 to 1940 we had significant warming with very little increase in carbon dioxide levels.  From 1940 to 1975 we had strong cooling while carbon dioxide levels were increasing rapidly, from 1975 to 1998 both carbon dioxide and temperature were increasing significantly and now from 1998 to 2009 we have cooling while carbon dioxide levels continue to increase.  That represents 40 years of no correlation, 46 years of negative correlation and 23 years of positive correlation.  What possible rationale justifies claiming 23 years of positive correlation proves the AGW theory while ignoring 86 years of negative or zero correlation.

Exit Question: What rational does the State of California have for using the output of computer models that cannot meet the validation challenge to justify the whole plethora of AB-32 economy strangling regulations? Regulations that will have no proven impact on climate change.

Changes at the Nevada County Business News

Russ Steele, Author

In the March issue of Nevada County Business News, Paula Collins announced that she was selling the Business News to Katy Height who owns a graphic design business in Nevada City. I have collected the NCBN over the year, each issue has been a valuable information source. I always paid lose attention to the employment figures in the Top Fifty. For years I had assumed that Paula got those number from some state agency, and was surprised to find out that she personally called the Top Fifty and compiled the numbers. That alone increase the value of these numbers. I hope that Katy Height continues the practice, these figures are valuable indicators for our local economy.

I thought the title was a little presumptuous since the NCBN only covered the western end of Nevada County. This is something noted by a former Union Editor who wanted to buy the semi-monthly business magazine and expand it to cover both ends of the County, and grow it into a more robust publications.  You can find this lament on his blog:

A few months ago, I expressed interest in buying a local business publication. I could see how you could ramp it up to be a real community-wide B-to-B publication, offering a more analytical voice than “meet your merchant.” I also wanted to expand it to Truckee; as I’ve said, we’re too insular.

But the owner sold it to her friend, partly because her friends in the 49er Rotary Club spoke out against me for some pointed columns I wrote. She made a point of this.
(The 49er Club is where the courts and law enforcement types hang out, and I have written openly about “conflicts of interest” and the “revolving door” of our justice system. It’s ironic because the group meets for breakfast just a block from my home. Some nice people, but I’m sticking to my opinion. Aren’t I entitled to one?)

“It’s a small town,” she said. “And that’s why it will stay small,” I told her. Since then, other opportunities to launch a media business here have popped up, but it was a telling story about what I and others see as a lingering “good old boys/girls network.”

I wish Katy Height well and look forward to her vision of what the Nevada County Business News might become in the future. It would be nice if the there was an electronic pdf version. If she chooses not to continue the TOP FIFTY feature, I hope she will share the data base with the ERC. This is valuable information for tracking future local growth, or decline. 

Exit Question: Should we have a business to business magazine that covers the whole county, maybe an electronic version?

Regulate, Punt or Prepare?

Russ Steele, Author

As the sun continues its slumber with little sign it will return to normal activity any time soon, what should we do? Regulate? Punt? Prepare?

Take a look at this total solar irradiance from NASA's Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment (SORCE) satellite. The SORCE mission began collecting TSI data in February 2003. Inspection of the SORCE TSI plot below show variations in the TSI have continued to decline in amplitude. If cycle 24 has started, there are no signs of it in the the SOURCE data.

Click for a larger graphic.

If as forecast by credible solar scientist the sun remains quiet for the next 20-30 years, and the earth cools as it has in the past, we can expect some significant changes in growing seasons here on earth. Shorter growing seasons result in smaller crop yields, and less food for expanding populations. What are the governments demanding reduction in carbon emissions, by restricting the development of reliable energy sources that are independent of the climate, going to do with the hungry cold mobs that are demanding food for their children and heat for their babies when the sun remains in it's slumber?  

Benny Peiser writes at CCNet "Given the unexpected arrest of the global warming trend and the extraordinary behaviour of our sun, it is prudent to reassess the solar-climate link with extra rigour. The current climate lull provides the scientific community and the world's decision makers with a respite. They would be well advised to spend more time and money on the study of our variable star whose intrinsic dynamics and climatic effects remain a mystery to this day."

And Davis Whitehouse asks: "Could the Sun play a greater role in recent climate change than has been believed? If the Earth cools under a quiet Sun, then it may be an indication that the increase in the Sun's activity since the Little Ice Age has been the dominant factor in global temperature rises. That would also mean that we have overestimated the sensitivity of the Earth's atmosphere to an increase of carbon dioxide from the pre-industrial three parts per 10,000 by volume to today's four parts per 10,000. Or the sun could compete with global warming, holding it back for a while. For now, all scientists can do, along with the rest of us, is to watch and wait."

What do you think we should do?  Should we continue down the path of restricting our production of reliable energy sources? Or, should we just wait to see what happens with the sun, and then if warming returns continue to restrict CO2 production?  Or, should we be preparing for the coming cold and reduction in food sources? I would like to know your thoughts.  

Cross Posted at The Dalton Minimum Returns.

H/T to Guest Post on WUWT by Guillermo Gonzalez. More information at WUWT, including some more detailed graphics analysis.