KVMR / Prop 23 Discussion - SBC greentech fact checking

Russ Steele

In his discussion points during the PROP 23 discussion between Rebane and Frisch, Mr Frisch made some glowing claims greentech.  This raise the question, green tech business all that is being claimed for this emerging business sector.

Greentech Media has a run down on  Greentech IPO Report: Past, Present and Top Ten IPO Candidates
They catalogs the ghosts of greentech IPOs past, looks at firms ready to float, and predicts a few likely candidates for the public markets.

Here's a rundown of Greentech IPOs that have already priced or been withdrawn, the ones currently on deck with their S-1s filed, and some wild prognostications about who the next IPO candidates might be.

If there's a running theme here, it's that this first crop of Greentech IPOs has stunk up the room -- but there are likely some higher-quality IPOs to come.

GreenTech IPOS Withdrawn(click for a larger image)

    •    Trony Solar just withdrew its planned IPO, about six months after the Shenzen, China-based PV module maker postponed its original IPO plans.  J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. and Credit Suisse Group were the lead underwriters for the amorphous silicon solar panel vendor.  Investors included Intel, which owned about 5 percent of the firm.
    •    Solyndra, recipient of $1 billion in VC and $500 million in government loan guarantees, could not convince institutional investors that their manufacturing costs could keep up with the solar market leaders or that profitability was remotely achievable in the near- to mid-term.  We haven't heard the last of Solyndra, but it might be a while until they can try the public markets again.

Greentech IPOs Past: Only a Few Winners (click for a larger image)

    •    It's too early to tell with Tesla -- they have first mover advantage and certainly the stock will be volatile in the coming year.  Let's check back in a year when hybrids and EVs from Chevy, Nissan, BYD, Hyundai, Fisker, Porsche (more Porsche here), Mercedes, BMW and VW start to reach the market.
    •    A123 has its share of challenges ahead.  The firm just announced that it lost Chrysler as a customer and missed its revenue estimates.  And recent news of spinning out a flow battery subsidiary doesn't seem like a vote of confidence for lithium-ion in large-scale utility storage applications.
    •    GT Solar's most recent quarter was mostly positive with earnings beating estimates, a very healthy backlog of $1.1 billion and good visibility into 2011 for the solar manufacturing equipment vendor.

Here is a list of ten GreenTech companies that have filed paper work, but the economic analysis demonstrates that here are still bumps on the GreenTech horizon.  Things are not quite as rosy at Mr. Frisch implied in his KVMR discussion. Go Figure!