Russ Steele
The San Jose State's Survey and Policy Research Institute has published their latest poll on consumer confidence in California and the Silicon Valley. The poll combines current conditions with future expectations and the picture is not very positive, except in Silicon Valley where there is some hiring going on by social media companies and social media want-a-be companies.
April poll found that the overall "index of consumer sentiment," which combines attitudes about current conditions and future expectations, had dropped to 70.2 among Californians.
California consumer confidence is down compared to six months ago, a new statewide survey by the Survey and Policy Research Institute at San José State University shows.
The overall Index of Consumer Sentiment, which combines assessments of current conditions and future expectations for personal finances and business conditions for the country as a whole, now stands at 70.2 among California residents. Index numbers below 100 indicate that negative perceptions outweigh positive. This represents a four- point drop from 74.4 in October 2010, and is only slightly higher than the 68.8 recorded last spring in March 2010.
The downward trend represents a mixed assessment, with perceptions of current economic conditions improving at the same time that expectations for the future are more negative. The Current Economic Conditions (CEC) Index now stands at 69.7, up 3.7 points since October. Expectations for the future, as measured by the Index of Consumer Expectations (ICE), have fallen 4.1 points over the same period, to 70.6 in April.
Fewer Californians see themselves as worse off today compared to a year ago. In April, 42% of California adults described their personal financial situation as worse than one year ago – compared to 49% in October – while 25% said they were better off now, and 30% said their financial situation was about the same.
Current buying conditions were seen as slightly worse than last fall, with 37% of Californians saying this is a good time to buy major household items – down from 39% in October.
Future expectations are significantly more pessimistic, however, for both personal finances and national economic conditions. In April, 30% of Californians said they expect their personal financial situation to be better a year from now – down from 38% in October – while 14% expect to be worse off. About half of all Californians (49%) expect their financial situation to remain the same in the next year.
With regard to business conditions in the country as a whole, both short-term and long- term expectations declined. In April, 27% of Californians said they expect the nation to see good times financially in the next 12 months – down from 32% in October – while 43% expect to see bad times. The remaining 19% expect business conditions to be mixed over the next year.
Long-term expectations suffered the largest drop, with 48% of Californians reporting that they expect the country to see periods of widespread unemployment or depression during the next five years – up from 37% in October. At the same time, just 30% of Californians in April said that they expect to see good economic conditions in the next five years, down from 39% in October.
“This increasing pessimism about the pace of recovery is not good news,” said Survey and Policy Research Institute Research Director Dr. Melinda Jackson, “Even as things are starting to improve, Californians are telling us they still see a long, bumpy road ahead.”
Sac Bee Capital Alert has a link to the full poll results, which includes some positive news for Silicon Valley.
Silicon Valley residents were also asked about business conditions in Silicon Valley itself. Current business conditions in Silicon Valley were seen as better than a year ago by 48% of residents, up from 42% in October, while 30% thought conditions were worse than a year ago, and 11% thought they were the same.
During the next 12 months, 50% of Silicon Valley residents said they expect to see good financial times in the Valley, up from 44% in October, while 23% expect mixed economic times, and another 17% expect to see bad times.
Looking ahead to one year from now, 43% of Silicon Valley residents say they expect business conditions in the Valley to be better than now, 39% expect them to be the same, and just 9% say they expect conditions to be worse.
“There is definitely more optimism about Silicon Valley than about the country as a whole,” said Survey and Policy Research Institute Research Director Dr. Melinda Jackson, “This region is known worldwide as a driver of innovation, entrepreneurship, and growth, so it is a good sign that things are starting to pick up here.”
Exit Questions: How do you feel, more positive about the California economy, or less confident? Do you think some of the Silicon Valley business growth will come to Nevada County?
