NC Media Watch

History will decide this debate

Russ  Steele

Jeff Ackerman wrote and interesting column this morning, where he praised President Bush’s leadership following 9/11, but thinks that Bush took a wrong turn in attacking Iraq.  I remind Jeff’s readers that Iraq has already proven they were a threat to stability in the region by attacking Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia could have been next. We could not afford  to have Saddam control that much of our oil supply, so we attacked Iraq in 1990-1991. Was that also a wrong turn?  The Taliban fled Afghanistan when the US arrived, some into the mountains on the Pakistan boarder, some al-Qaeda to Iraq and Iran.

While we could keep Saddam under control using our air power with no fly zones, we could not keep him from allowing al-Qaeda to build training camps, and devise new ways of attack Christians and Jews.  If you will recall,  Saddam used his missiles attack Israel and refused to let UN inspectors do their job to assure the world he was not building WMDs.  Did we want al-Qaeda to have access to these WMDs. He was training two thugs, his sons, to take over when he passed on.  This religious and political cancer was not going to go away until it was cleaned up, which is what the current President Bush decided to do.  It is truly unfortunate the first President Bush did not take care of Saddam in 1990-1991, but he would have unleashed the sectarian warfare then rather than now.  Regardless, then or now, it was something that needed to be cleaned up.  History will determine if Bush’s decision to clean it up was truly a wrong turn.

ERC Question #10: What suggestions do you have for improving communications from the ERC?

The ERC needs to elevate it’s profile in the community as a visionary leader. The Loma Rica Business Park survey revealed that many business did not know the ERC existed, and it they were aware it existed what it’s purpose was. Ask anyone on the street, what is the value of the ERC?  “What’s the ERC,” will most likely be the response. That has to change. 

This community is in desperate need of a vision of what it wants to be in ten years.  Even that time frame my be too long, given the current rate of change. Think back ten years, what was the big technology, what was the next great thing on the horizon.  Nevada County did not get dial up slow speed Internet until 1995, just 12 years ago. Limited DSL arrived in 2000, cable broadband in 2005. All the emerging business that need broadband still do not have access.  Yet, in a flat world every business needs to be part of a collaborative global network. The Internet has changed how business is done in just ten years.

Grass Valley is on the verge of approving some of the SDAs with out a clear vision what kind of industrial and business parks the community will need over the next ten years. In a flat world, it may not be the same kind built over the last ten years, they certainly need fiber optic broadband access. Lacking a vision of what businesses infrastructure will be needed over the next ten years, we are more likely to get more of the same because the City Council lacks a vision of what is needed.  I think it is the ERC responsibility to define that vision for the City Council.  Not as a single enterprise, but as the leader of community group to define where our local industrial base needs to be in ten years.

Bird flu, H5N1 strain is back in the news

Russ Steele

The bird flu has recently reappeared in China, Hong Kong Viet Nam and Japan.   We learned yesterday at a presentation by Dr. George Rebane, Sierra Environmental Studies Foundation, for local church leaders that flu pandemics comes in waves.  It looks like another wave has been launched in Asia.

I was disappointed that so few of the invited church leaders showed up for the briefing yesterday, given the need for public awareness and preparation should we be faced with an H5N1 pandemic in the US, California and Nevada County. Once a pandemic starts it is too late to prepare. The time to prepare in now, yet there does not seem to be much interest in the community. Given the seriousness this issue, I will add a weekly flu pandemic report to NC Media Watch.

We will continue to our weekly global warming updates, but in the scheme of things, being prepared for a large scale emergency is more important than attempting to control global warming.  The SESF  has prepared a report on the current lack of large-scale emergency planning and public education in Nevada County. This situation is examined from the perspective of a impending 'bird flu' pandemic, the most probable large-scale emergency to impact Nevada County in the near future.  You can download a copy on the SESF Reports page.  We will add more resources in the coming weeks.

UPDATE: This bird flu update from CNN

"The number of cases in 2006 was more than it was in 2005, which is more than it was in 2004 ... so it continues to go up in people," said John Bartlett, is an infectious disease expert at John Hopkins University.

The shifting global oil market

Russ Steele

Thomas Barnett has some interesting analysis on the shift in future oil markets on his blog today:

The U.S. Energy Information Administration says that for 2005, total U.S. oil supply broke down as follows: 55% from North America and 12% from South America. Another 14% from Africa and 4% from Europe/Russia. The Middle East accounted for 15%. Looking at it this way, I would say about 70% of U.S. oil comes from pretty stable places (I know, Chavez talks, but he still sells), with only 30 percent coming from the Middle East and Africa.

The whole analysis is here. 

The global oil market can have a big impact on our economy. One thing to remember when reading Tom’s  post is when customers are in trouble, so maybe the seller.  China is one of California’s biggest customers, and they need more oil from unstable parts of the world than we do.  Someday one of our biggest customer could be in big trouble.   An that trouble may come home to roost.

North Korean Nuke Strategy

Russ Steele

If you are not a subscriber to Stratfor.com you should be. This is one of the best sources of clear strategic thinking on the Internet. Here is their analysis of North Korea's nuclear test.

UPDATE:  Was it real or a dud?  Here is a different  point of view at defencetech.org, plus some assessment tools.

Preparing us for the unthinkable: Jericho

Russ Steele

As the war on terror continues, it is only time that prevents the terrorists from obtaining nuclear bombs. Russian bombs are secured with rusty padlocks, guarded by poorly paid troopers.  In Pakistan, a road side bomb could kill President Pervez Musharraf, and the nuclear arsenal will become available to the mullas and their there terrorist constituents.  Iran continues to develop the bomb. It is only time until we have to deal with the consequences of a nuclear explosion in one, or more, of our major cities by terrorist. It will happen someday. It is unfortunate that we are not preparing for the consequences. It could be San Francisco, the hub of technology development in the US and a major port to China a major economic partner, or it could be LA. My guess, it it will be an East Coast city or Chicago. Regardless of where, the nation and our citizens are unprepared.

So, this bring us to the question. Is Jericho, which premiered tonight on CBS, preparing us for the unthinkable?  I am not a TV buff and it was an accident I saw the opening of the program.

The story line from Wikipedia:

The story line revolves around the small town of Jericho, Kansas, and what happens to its residents in the aftermath of a nuclear explosion at nearby Denver, Colorado, which causes a loss of power and communications that leaves Jericho isolated. The reason for the nuclear detonation is not immediately known. Cut off from the outside world after learning of a second explosion at Atlanta, Georgia, facing rumors and fears of further attacks against other U.S. cities, and a breakdown of public order and the chain of command, the community must find a way to survive in the midst of panic and chaos.

The pivotal character is Jake Green, a 32-year-old prodigal son who returns home to Jericho for what he believes will be a brief visit, only to become stranded when the nuclear strike hits. After a testy reunion with his father (the mayor of Jericho), Jake becomes an unlikely hero, helping to protect the town from the dangers both inside and outside its borders.

What do you think? Will it happen? What will be the consequences if we are not prepared for the unthinkable?  Should we worry if it could be San Franisco?  Your thoughts please.

UPDATE:  The October Wired Magazine, on page 52, has instructions on how to dismantle an Atomic Bomb, just in case you have an Jack Bauer moment come your way.

UPDATE:  Some thoughts on thinking the unthinkable by an expert on nuclear terror.

Peak Oil Panic

Russ Steele

Reason magazine discusses Peak Oil Panic in the May issue and asks the questions. Are we running out of Oil?  What should Bush do about it?

Ron Bailey, Reason’s science correspondent, lays out the peak oil issues and then knocks them down one by one. we have enough reserves for several generations. Then he points to the real oil crisis, most of the worlds oil reserves are not possessed by private enterprise. Seventy seven percent is controlled by government owned companies, with all the inefficiencies of central planning.

Not surprising, Bailey thinks we should let the free markets have free rein. He thinks President Bush should be listening to his buddies in the oil industry, as the free market has produced more oil, more efficiently than any other mechanism. 

The article has not been posted on the Reason Web page yet, but it is well worth your time if you have any interest in the peak oil argument.

A history professor assess our progress in Iraq

Russ Steele

Victor Davis Hanson, my favorite historian, has returned from Iraq and gives his assessment on our progress at National Review Online.  His independent review can also be found here.

"It is an odd war, because the side that I think is losing garners all the press, whether by blowing up the great golden dome of the Askariya shrine in Samarra, or blowing up an American each day. Yet we hear nothing of the other side that is ever so slowly, shrewdly undermining the enemy."

Iran options

Russ Steele

If you are interested in the Iran nuclear dust up options check out Geopol, starting here.  This is awesome!

A strategic vision worth reading

by Russ Steele

Blueprint for Action : A Future Worth Creating
by Thomas P.M. Barnett

My first introduction to Thomas Barnett, was on a Sunday morning in May 2004 when I turned on CSPN’s  Book Notes with Brian Lamb, to catch the tail end of an interview with Barnett.  The subject was his new book, The Pentagon’s New Map. What little I heard that morning made a lot of sense, even to this twenty year cold war vet  steeped is a paradigm of mutual assured destruction. Barnett convinced me it was time to update my global thinking, especially the role international foreign investment plays in globalization, and it’s nexis with military strategy. I purchased PNM from Amazon that very morning.

The Pentagons New Map put the Pentagon’s post cold war problems in perspective. How to cope in a world, where your major reason for existence just threw in the towel. For example, how does the US Navy justify more attack subs, when the Russian missle attack subs are rotting in port. How do these subs fit in to war on terror?  Can they?

Until 9/11 the Pentagon’s new enemy was China. Post 9/11 the war on terror required new rule sets in a world characterized by a functioning Core, and a non integrating Gap which harbored transnational terrorist. In Barnett’s post cold war world it is no longer the West vs East, but fully function economies (Core)  vs economic isolation (Gap).

He also introduced the co-joined ideas of a Leviathan Force to take down rogue governments, not unlike the force that rolled in to Baghdad in a few short days, and a SysAdmin force need to reconstruct what was broken. A SysAdmin force the Pentagon does not have today, and are still trying to create with Core participation. Lot’s of lesson learned in Iraq and Afganistan. 

In Blue Print for Action Barnett lays out what Core, and emerging core nations (New Core), must do to rescue Gap nations and create a seamless global economy, followed by world peace. “A grand strategy for a grand vision” in a politically and economically connected world of tomorrow. 

Politically corrupt  gap states attract and support transnational terrorist.  Barnett lays out six steps, to  accomplish his grand strategic vision for reducing the Gap.  First, a U.N. Security Council grand jury indicts the Gap countries; second, the Core's biggest economies issue " 'warrants' for the arrest of the offending party"; third, the US leads a Leviathan "war fighting coalition"; fourth, a Core-wide System administrative force, with limited United States personnel, puts things back together with the help of the fifth element, an International Reconstruction Fund; followed by a sixth step, criminal prosecution of the apprehended parties in the Hague’s International Criminal Court. 

Barnett is an academic, but does not write like one. He has breezy style that talks directly to the reader.  He is also a blogger. Those readers who visited Barnett’s blog on a regular basis were privey to progress reports on the crafting of Blueprint for Action. Some of these blog visitors also contributed to the final product, as Barnett tested ideas.

In the final chapter of Blueprint, Barnett blogs the future. He constructs future headlines and comments on them, just like he comments on today's headline on his blog.  While I do not agree with all the things he projects, it is fun to watch the daily news headlines move toward Barnetts vision of the future. A future vision he crafted for tomorrows leaders.  Although given recent headlines, I think Secrataries Rice and  Rumsfeld may have read the Blueprint, or at least some of their young staffers have. 

As a regular blog reader, Blueprint for Action was not the page turner PNM was.  In Blueprint, it was more like knowing the “rest of the story” before begining the book.  Too much of the blog reduced my anticipation, I could guess what Barnett was going to say before turning the page.  That said,  this is an important book, and I will be rereading chapters for years to come. Making progress checks on a “Future Worth Creating.”

As globalization advances, and the gap shrinks, it will continue to impact our local economy, as more people, goods, ideas and funds flow across international borders. Our local business and political leaders should understand these forces, and take advantage of Barnett’s strategic vision, as they craft a local future worth having. Highly recommended reading, but start with PMN.