NC Media Watch

OTOMH: Where will those damn dams be when the drought comes?

Russ Steele

My monthly OTOMH column has been published in the CABPRO News, and it is now posted on the CABPRO Report webs site.

It was a drought that is responsible for my interest in long term climate trends. In the 1970s my oldest daughter took an interest in the Anasazi cliff dwellings when we lived in Holbrook, Arizona for a year. The Strategic Air Command Radar Bomb Scoring Unit in Holbrook was my assignment upon my graduation from Air Command and Staff College in 1973. Not an auspicious assignment out of Command and Staff College, but I digress. Our year in Holbrook allowed us to take many family trips to the cliff dwellings scattered throughout Arizona and New Mexico, and eventually Colorado. But, Colorado is another story.

As we visited the cliff dwellings, one of the questions that kept coming up in our discussion was, why did this sophisticated community abandon their fields and dwellings and then vanish? The Internet was not yet a universal research tool, so we visited the local library and started researching possible causes: warfare, weather, famine, etc. We discovered there had been a long period of drought in the mid-11th and 12th centuries which may have contributed to the Anasazi cultural collapse.

Research by paleoclimatologists has confirmed that temperatures rose in the western U.S. from about A.D. 800-1300, known as the Medieval Warm Period, which translated into a series of droughts. The most devastating of these occurred in the mid-11th and 12th centuries, when dry conditions persisted for several decades. As I recall from our research, the longest we found was 27 years.

Paleoclimate data from tree rings and other sources also suggest that the mechanism driving drought during this Medieval Warm Period was eastern Pacific Ocean cooling. Much like a widespread extended La Ni√±a event with cool sea surface temperatures strengthening a persistent moisture-blocking system of high-pressure off the West coast, nudging storm tracks north. This year the blocking is lower down the coast, creating droughts in New Mexico and Texas. We are fortunate that the La Niña this year resulted in a record-breaking snowfall. However, this has not always been the case.

During the Dalton Minimum there was a 13-year drought in coastal California according to Church Mission records. This was also a period when a deep La Niña weather pattern dominated the Pacific. The La Niña weather patterns have been associated with drought throughout climate history We are entering a period of low sun spot activity similar to the Dalton Minimum. The Pacific has entered a cool phase, which promotes more La Niña weather patterns. We could be on the cusp of some long-term periods of drought if history is an indicator.

You can read the rest of my column here, which column concludes:
It is time to start building more of those damn dams. The cold Pacific droughts are just around the corner, and it takes ten years to build a dam as large as the Auburn Dam. Waiting for the droughts to happen before taking action is not an option!

Global warming on Banner Mt. this morning

Russ Steele

And the global warming continues:

Photos by Ellen.

Oh my god, Travels with Charlie was a fraud (Edited)

Russ Steele

I am not sure you can understand the impact of this claim of fraudulent journalism.  Steinbeck's Travels with Charlie was the foundation of my desire to some day hit the road and RV across America. It was after reading Travels with Charlie, that I knew that this kind of foot loose travel was what I wanted to do some day. 

Why is Travels with Charlie a fraud? I will let Bill Steigerwald tell the story in On the Road with John Steinbeck who set out to retrace John Steinbeck’s 1960 trek across America and he discovered it was a fraud. 

If you’ve read my “Sorry, Charley” piece in the Post-Gazette or in the April issue of Reason magazine, you already know I’ve concluded that Steinbeck’s nonfiction book “Travels With Charley” is not just full of fiction; it's also a dishonest account of his iconic journey and what he really thought about America.
Or, to put it less kindly, it is "something of a fraud" when it comes to telling the real story of his famous road trip around America.

The research and drive-by journalism that led me to that conclusion is explained in gory detail on this blog, most of which I wrote on the road in the fall of 2010 while retracing Steinbeck's journey 50 years after he took it.

I was a bachelor Air Force Officer living in Maine when I first read Travels with Charlie in 1961.  I made an immediate connection with the story when Steinbeck started his journey in Maine.  He inspired in me a desire to travel across the nation, from border to border, and this image has always been at the back of my mind, even after I was married and had a family.

I met Ellen at Loring AFB and learned she shared my interested in camping and travel adventures. After we were married we build a camper into a naked Dodge Van and travel across the county for 30 days, when we left Loring AFB for our next assignment at Castle AFB in California. Our trip took us from Maine to the Gulf Coast and Louisiana, the reverse direction of Travels with Charlie, and then on to California over more of the same reverse route taken by Steinbeck.  We were joined by our nine month old daughter Jessica, who I must admit took a lot of attention.  Attention we might have payed to recreating some Travels with Charlie experiences.

However, Steinbeck’s story did saved the day for me years later. Steinbeck described problems with some white threads that appeared in over stressed tires on his truck in Oregon. The tires on his truck were not rated to carry the load of a heavy camper shell. We were on a family camping trip across the country pulling a tent trailer, with a trunk full of camping gear, when white threads appeared on the tires of our Volvo. When I saw those white threads on the tires, I remember Steinbeck’s recount, and had our tires changed at a local shop some where in New Mexico.  Our goal for the day has been Lubbock Texas, but our need for tires caused a delay and we stayed overnight at Cannon AFB. That night a tornado destroyed a good portion of Lubbock Texas, including the camp ground where we planned to stay the night.   

Charlie was a puddle.  Today we have a standard poodle named Harper. When it came time to have another dog, our daughter Caitlin was promoting a poodle, and one of her arguments was Charlie was a poodle. I was not so sure, but now that we have Harper, I can understand the relationship between Steinbeck and Charlie.  Poodles are the most intelligent and loving dogs that can take over your life through their loving nature and the attention they demand.

While Travels with Charlie maybe an intellectual fraud, it was a inspiration for thousands of hours of camping adventures all across this great nation for the Steele family. I really do not want to know  Steigerwald details, as Ellen and I have our own RVing memories and more Travels with Harper to look forward to.

Why do we RV? (Corrected)

Russ Steele

Ellen and I are often asked by our non-RVing friends why we RV and some times it is hard to explain.  One of our favorite RV destination is the Salmon River in Idaho.  The beauty is awesome and when you have your own bed, refrigerator, stove and comfortable chair with you; and can stay as long as you like to watch the sun rise and sun set in places like Stanley Idaho, and visiting the mining towns of yesteryear and marveling at the technical achievements of our ancestors you might catch the bug.  Ellen and have visited most of the places in this video of Custer County Idaho. If you do not have a clue as to way we RV at the end of this video, you are not going to be a good candidate for RVing.

H/T to an Idaho friend for the video.

The Unintended Consequences of feel good decisions

Russ Steele

I hate low-flow flush toilets!  Ellen and I have a travel trailer and visit campground across the nation. Although we have a bathroom on board, it is some times more convenient to use the public campground facility.  Cuts down on the number times we have to use the dump station. Many of the RV parks have upgraded their facilities with low-flow flush toilets and more often than you would expect they are plugged, close to over flowing.  In my experience, your have to flush a low-flow flush toilet multiple times to get the waste product to disappear down the drain.  This seem to be contrary to the intended purpose of saving water.

Now we learn of another unintended consequences of those low flush toilets from a story in the San Francisco Chronicle.  

San Francisco‘s big push for low-flow toilets has turned into a multimillion-dollar plumbing stink.

Skimping on toilet water has resulted in more sludge backing up inside the sewer pipes, said Tyrone Jue, spokesman for the city Public Utilities Commission. That has created a rotten-egg stench near AT&T Park and elsewhere, especially during the dry summer months.

The city has already spent $100 million over the past five years to upgrade its sewer system and sewage plants, in part to combat the odor problem.

Now officials are stocking up on a $14 million, three-year supply of highly concentrated sodium hypochlorite – better known as bleach – to act as an odor eater and to disinfect the city’s treated water before it’s dumped into the bay.

I wonder of anyone ever thought about the unintended consequences of less water in the sewer system before mandating low-flush toilets?  If one of our standard flush toilets break, I am going the junk yard and find replacement. No low-flow toilets for our house! We do not need any unintended consequences.

Hunt for the Truckee Weather Station

Russ Steele

The Truckee Weather Station temperature data was used in a US Forest Service and UC Davis study of global warming the the Sierra. I wrote about the station and the study here.

Today Ellen and I drove up to Truckee to observe the snow pack and have lunch at the JAX Truckee Dinner. While there we decied to track down the COOP Weather Station associated used in the study. According to the NOAA/NCDC data base the staion is located at the Truckee Ranger Station.

We went to the new Truckee Ranger Station, at 10811 Stockrest Springs Road, just outside of Truckee, where I asked the Ranger at the Front Desk where the COOP weather station was located. She said that the station was not located at the Ranger Station,  it has been located at Mr. Huber's home for years.   According to the Ranger at the desk, after Mr Huber retired from the Forest Service he took the temperature  and other readings at his home and brought in the monthy data for transmission to NCDC untill he died. 

According to an Obituary in the Sierra Sun for Donald Peter Huber he died in October of 2009.

Don retired from the US Forest Service in 1985, but stayed active in the community . . . he was also known as the weather man, keeping accurate records of Truckee weather for almost 40 years. After nearly 50 years in the Truckee area, Don moved down to Carson City in June to relax and to be closer to his daughter, Christie, and her family.

This is inconsistent with the information given to me by the Ranger. I am goiing to assume that  Mr. Huber stopped recording the weather in June of 2009. According the the NCDC the Period of Record is from 9/ 1/1904 to 5/31/2009.

 

Photo Sierra Sun.

The part of the story that interested me is that since 1985, Mr. Huber has been recording the weather, including the temepratures at his home in Truckee for 24 years. We have no idea of the environmental conditions surrounding the weather station sensor. Was it co-located with a BBQ? How close was it to his house?  Was it near the A/C?  According to the NCDC Record the station was moved in 1985, and then again in 2006. From the Obituary it would appear that when Mr. Huber moved the station moved.  The problem is the NCDC record inidcates the COOP is located at the Ranger Station.


It is hard to put too much faith in the validity of the temperature record, when the station data is clearly wrong. The question is, what else was wrong? Mr. Huber may have done a great job, he certainly appears to be a dedicated weather observer, but there are unanswered questions.  Since the Study Team did not evaluate at the meta data before declaring there is global warming in the National Forest, how valid was the study based on this weather station? 

High-speed trains or effective highways?

Russ Steele

Ellen and I took a quick trip to Truckee today to check out the snow pack and have a great lunch at JAX Dinner in Truckee. They have some great home made potato chips!  I also wanted to check out the Truckee COOP  weather station that was used in a Forest Service Study of Global Warming in the Tahoe and El Dorado National Forests. More on the missing COOP in another post.

On thing this is very evident from our trip -- I-80 is falling apart.  Our teath chatter all the way from SR-20 to the Downtown Truckee exit, except where Caltrans had done some repairs this last summer.  Why are we sepending huge sums on high-speed rail when our highway infrastructures is falling apart?  Fixing the highway produces lots of jobs for a broad rage of business. 

This discussion of the rail vs highway issue is from the National Journal Transportation Blog  High-Speed Rail vs. Modal Neutrality
 
Isn't it curious that an Administration devoted to the principle of  multi-modalism is so obsessively determined to promote a single mode of its own preference -- that of high-speed rail? All three governors who rejected the federal HSR grants --- Govs. Walker, Kasich and Scott --- told Sec. LaHood that their states could badly use that money for more urgent needs of fixing roads, bridges and transit systems and, in the case of Gov. Scott, rebuilding Florida's ports in anticipation of the Panama Canal expansion. Yet Sec. LaHood turned a deaf ear to those requests, insisting that the stimulus money must be spent on high-speed rail --- even though money spent on other modes could have been just as effective in creating jobs. After justly condemning "stove pipe" mentality and modal biases in federal decisionmaking it is ironic to find  the Administration ignoring its own principles of modal neutrality in such a blatant manner.

Exit Question:  Should we continue to pursue high-speed rail and let our higway infrastructure collapse?

Here is some salve for a bad chap

Russ Steele

Update (02-28-11, 10:00) Comment are closed, the discussion has veered into repetitious personal attacks.

Jeff Pelline, our local middle of the road, left leaning blogger writes that he is chapped by retired military personnel receiving benefits. He writes:

One thing that really chaps me about guys like Russ Steele is that they have benefited from government “handouts,” if you will, their whole lives: a government-paid college education (by Russ’ own admission), a VA loan for a house I suspect, a pension from the Air Force I presume, a government stimulus check to retirees from Obama, and really good health care for the family.

Let put all this chapping in perspective.  In 1960, with two years of college under my belt, I joined the Air Force and as was commissioned a 2nd Lt upon graduation from Navigation school.  I signed a contract to service for four years and defend the United States, and if necessary at the cost of my life.  As the end of the four years I was commissioned a Regular Office with a 20 year commitment. I signed a contract to support and defend this nation, and if necessary at the cost of my life. 

According to that contract for 20 years of service at reduce salary, I would be guaranteed a retirement at 50% of by base pay, low cost medical care for me and my family and other VA benefits as authorized by congress. About six years into my 20 year tour, President Johnson need more money for his social programs and decided that we should also pay Social Security taxes, which reduced our take home play even more. During my first 10 years, I completed my college degree while attending Air Command and Staff College. I went to school 12 hours a day, five days a week, for 9 months, studying on weekends. 

I was married in 1963 and Ellen and I raised four daughter while I was in the Air Force. We moved 14 times in 20 year, losing money on every move. Once they were in school, all those moves took a toll on our children.  We put all four through college on my TRW Salary, our savings, and a family endowment. 

Following my 20 years in the Air Force I joined TRW and started a 401K saving account and used the TRW medical plan.  I did not start using government medical services until four years after I retried from TRW in 2000.  Yes, the VA guaranteed our home loan, but we made every payment.  Was that a "handout"? It could have had an FHA guaranteed loan.

I tell you what chaps me, is that people like Jeff Pelline, who to my knowledge have never served in the military, claim that retired military  are getting government "handouts."  I signed a contract with the government for 20 years of service. I full filled my side of the contract with distinction, now I want the government to fill their side of the contract, that is not a handout. My benefits are payments on a commitment the government made in 1964.

Since we move back to Nevada County, Ellen and I have worked to make this a better place to live. She served on the Grand Jury for 20 month. Being a retired military officer, with a 401K plan, I have the resources and time to invest in our community.  I served on the Transportation Commission twice.  When the ERC hired Larry Burkardt, I was the first ERC Volunteer, and I have volunteered to support all the ERC Presidents since the ERC was established. I served in the Chamber Board for four years, I helped get the Nevada County County Leadership Institute started. I helped bring Internet to the Library and Nevada County Schools.  I am currently on the SESF Board and support theTechTest merit scholarship program for graduating high school students seeking careers in engineering and science. 

Exit Question:  What volunteer time has Jeff Pelline contributing to our community?

More on California's High Speed Rail

Russ Steele

A number of readers have jumped in to defend high speed rail citing examples of rail success in Europe.  Ellen and I have traveled by train multiple times in England, Scotland, and France. On one trip we brought a rail pass with car rental at each stop. We were staying in country cottages and visiting our oldest daughter attending York University.

On another trip we took the high-speed train from London to Paris with our youngest daughter who was finishing an education abroad semester. On a previous trip to France,  Ellen and I used regional rail. All the train trips were an enjoyable experience. On the Eurostar train to Paris, the three of us and one other couple were the only ones in our rail car. With only five people to serve we received incredible attention from the staff.

I wondered at the time, with so few riders on the Eurostar, how could it be profitable. According to a Skynet story here it has never been profitable and even with record number of passenger, who are avoiding airline hassles, it is not projected to operate in the black. 

Thomas Sowell has some thought on California's high-speed rail in his article Reckless Spending at TownHall.com

Building a high-speed rail system between Los Angeles and San Francisco may sound great to people who don't give it any serious thought. But we are a more spread-out country than England, France or Japan. The distance between Los Angeles and San Francisco is greater than the distance from London to Paris-- by more than 100 miles.

In Japan, the distance between Tokyo and Osaka is comparable to the distance between Los Angeles and San Francisco. But the population of Osaka alone is larger than the combined populations of Los Angeles and San Francisco-- and Tokyo has millions more people than Osaka. That is why it can make sense to have a "bullet train" running between Osaka and Tokyo, but makes no sense to build one between Los Angeles and San Francisco.

However little President Obama knows or cares about economics, he knows a lot about politics-- and especially political rhetoric. "High-speed rail" is simply another set of lofty words to justify continued expansion of government spending. So are words like "investment in education" or "investment" in any number of other things, which serves the same political purpose.

The problem with California's high-speed rail is it will suffer same fate as the Eurostar, it will never be profitable. After the Federal government gives California money to build it, then the California tax payers will have to foot the bill for operations and maintenance. It will be just another black hole sucking in our tax dollars for ever. Not a good bargain, just for the the bragging rights of having a high- speed rail.

Exit Question: How can California HSR every be profitable? Please explain!

Is their a cure for Range Anxiety?

Russ Steele

Writing the other day about a surge in plug-in electric vehicles here reminded me of a conversation I had in the early 1990s about electric vehicles with Pat Kelly, a former Air Force navigator and at the time fellow employee at TRW. The GM EV1 was not on the market yet.

Both Pat and I were electronic warfare officers and navigators in short range aircraft, he in Tactical Air Command and me in Strategic Air Command. He had spent a tour over Thud Ridge in the back seat of an F105 Wild Wessel confronting North Viet Nam surface to air missile batteries and I had been a right seater in the SAC FB-111.

While we shared a common back ground, at times were rivals in the Air Force. He was a TAC guy and I was a SAC guy, even thought we were both working on the same problem.  How to get immediate electronic intelligence into computer driven electronic warfare systems under combat conditions. We just viewed the world from a different point of view. His was a tactical warfare perspective and mine was more strategic nuclear warfare.   

Pat and I were enjoy a scotch and soda in a motel bar, we had just spent the afternoon listening to the genius at Cal Tech Pomona talking about the future of electric vehicles. Part of our mission at TRW was to look for new ideas, emerging technologies, and connect the dots to future business opportunities.

Without introduction, Pat said, “They will never sell”  “What will never sell,” I asked.

“Electric cars,” he answered. “Range anxiety!”  This was an insightful comment on a condition that is slowing the sales of electric vehicles today.