NC Media Watch

Are these changes in the climate caused by fewer sunspots?

Russ Steele

According to Henrik Svensmark's theory, cosmic rays impact the formation of clouds on the earth. The cosmic rays come from the cosmos.  However, the solar wind modulates the number of cosmic rays that reach the atmosphere. When the sun is very active, with multiple sun spots, the solar wind is much stronger and deflects some of the cosmic rays.  A quiet sun, with fewer sunspots, results in more cosmic rays reaching the lower atmosphere.

More comic rays = more clouds = a cooler planet.

Solar Cycle 23 was long and drawn out with a slow start to Solar Cycle 24,  as shown in this graphic. You can also see that SC-24 is projected to be much lower in intensity than SC-23. The accumulative result is a weaker solar wind and more cosmic rays reaching the atmosphere.


With fewer sunspots, there should be more cosmic rays and more clouds according to the theory.  The question in my mind, are we seeing any signatures in the climate that indicate more clouds are cooling the planet?

Here are two data plots for your consideration, starting with ten years of average US temperatures.


Here is a plot of sea levels, which as you can see they are declining, indicating the oceans are cooling, however, these changes are lagging behind the decline in the sun spots. Just like it takes while for kettle on the stove to cool once the heat is removed, the oceans should also take some time to adjust to more cloud cover which is blocking the suns heat. 


The question is, are these changes the result of fewer sunspots and more cosmic rays that have created cooling clouds or some other factors. Stay Tuned! 

Another climate change scare by rent-seeking scientist - Cities unprepared for warming

Russ Steele

Gretchen Weber writing at KQED's Climate Watch brings us the news that Cities Fiddle While World Warms

Compared to most of the world, California would appear to have a head start in planning for a changing climate.

Cities across the world are not doing enough to protect citizens from the likely impacts. That's the finding of a new analysis from the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) in Boulder, CO. The report says cities are unprepared for rising seas, intensified heat waves, while failing to curb their own greenhouse gas emissions.

The failure to act doesn't bode well for the billions of people who live in cities around the world, according to NCAR Scientist Patricia Romero Lankao, who came to her findings through an in-depth analysis of urban policies.

ooo

The NCAR study finds that, rather than imposing construction standards that could save energy or guiding policy to reduce automobile use, many local governments are taking a "hands-off" approach. “Cities can have an enormous influence on emissions by focusing on mass transit systems and energy-efficient structures, but local leaders face pressures to build more roads and relax regulations that could reduce energy use,” said Romero Lankao in a written release.

But, fear not in California as Gretchn points out we have Senate Bill 375 that requires regional and local governments to find ways to reduce vehicle miles traveled and thus greenhouse gas emissions. According to her report AB 32 and SB 375 laws have creating a framework for local governments, regional authorities, and the state to work together on climate change issues.

I guess that is one way to look at the issue. Another is that this frame work has set in motion a process for killing jobs all across the state as the cost of living soars, and cities cram their population into rabbit hutches surrounding transit stations.

California Sea-Level Rise Reality Check

Russ Steele

I was doing some research on an article that appeared in The Union this weekend titled: Scientist: Recent storms consistent with warming planet. I was investigating the snow pack claims in the article, when I stumbled across some sea-level rise claims by the California Department of Water Resources in a document referenced in The Union article. It was a Department of Water Resources report on Managing an Uncertain Future: Climate Change Adaption Strategies for California's Water.  The report has this to say about Sea-Level Rise

Sea levels are rising, and it is generally accepted that this trend will continue. However, the exact rate of rise is unknown, due to ongoing scientific uncertainty about the melting of ice sheets on western Antarctica and Greenland and the potential for abrupt changes in ocean conditions. Recent peer-reviewed studies estimate a rise of between seven to 55 inches by 2100 along California’s coast.

Here is a little reality check on sea level rise in a study by  J.R. Houston and R.G. Dean, and published in the Journal of Coastal Research, titled: Sea-Level Acceleration Based on U.S. Tide Gages and Extensions of Previous Global-Gage Analyses.

Here is the Abstract from the paper.

Without sea-level acceleration, the 20th-century sea-level trend of 1.7 mm/y would produce a rise of only approximately 0.15 m from 2010 to 2100; therefore, sea-level acceleration is a critical component of projected sea-level rise. To determine this acceleration, we analyze monthly-averaged records for 57 U.S. tide gauges in the Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level (PSMSL) data base that have lengths of 60–156 years. Least-squares quadratic analysis of each of the 57 records are performed to quantify accelerations, and 25 gauge records having data spanning from 1930 to 2010 are analyzed. In both cases we obtain small average sea-level decelerations. To compare these results with worldwide data, we extend the analysis of Douglas (1992) by an additional 25 years and analyze revised data of Church and White (2006) from 1930 to 2007 and also obtain small sea-level decelerations similar to those we obtain from U.S. gauge records.

Read that carefully, over a 80 year period sea-levels are decelerating, not accelerating as postulated in the Water Resources Report. Based on this report California coastal and bay area communities are being forced to develop plans for a 55 inch rise in sea levels. This planning and associated mitigation is costing cities money they do not have. 

Full report is here. Stay tuned for the snow pack post.