NC Media Watch

Our near record snow fall may have started in Iceland, Russia, and Alaska

Russ Steele

The snow on Mt. Baker Washington is still five stories tall in the pass, the Going to the Sun Road in Glacier National Park had the lastest opening ever, and record snow fall on Mt. Shasta have the glaciers moving again.

Northern hemisphere volcanos have been very active in Iceland, Russia, and Alaska over the last two years.  These volcanos may have had more of an impact on our climate than we originally thought.

New studies show that volcanic eruptions can eject up to 100 million times more ash than previously thought. One million times! The ash seeds cloud formation, leading to more rain and snow.

A team of researchers in France monitored Iceland's Eyjafjallajokull volcano, which, beginning on March 20, 2010, ejected an enormous plume of ash into the atmosphere that soon spread across Europe.

The researchers then analyzed how many secondary particles this ash generated as it reacted chemically with other components of the atmosphere.

Their new data showed that when sulphuric acid particles become large enough, they can behave as seeds for cloud formation, thereby increasing the amount of precipitation.

In addition, such seeding particles can form at lower altitudes and farther away from volcanoes than past studies had suggested, causing changes in local and regional weather.

The findings, published online on July 11 in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, here, point to the potentially broader climate influence that volcanoes could have.

It was a combination of low solar activity in 1800 and long series of eruptions by Mount Tambora in 1815, that created a year without a summer in 1916 in the Northern hemisphere.  Now the question, is could a series of seperate volcanos across the hemisphere produce enough ash and secondary particles to produce a future year without a summer?  We live in interesting times.

Iceland Update: Katla is rumbling again

Russ Steele

I wrote about the possibility that Katla is Iceland might become active again in this decade here, based on a swarm of earth quakes. Now those quakes are getting more intense.

Every time Katla has erupted in human history the human race has suffered. Now, with our dependence on air travel to transport food and people for business and tourism the impact will be significant in the short term. Long term the shortening of the growing season will impact the global food supply. The northern grain growing regions in the US, Canada and Russia will be unable to produce the surpluses that have fed hungry mouths around the world.  Some regions will shift southward, but will not be enough to feed the hungry. 

Now the Katla quakes are becoming more intense, over shorter intervals. More details here.


H/T to Walt who posted a reminder.

Chile's Cordón Caulle Volcano Complex Rips 6 mile long rift in earth

Russ Steele

Increased vulcanism and has been associated with a cooler earth, often in combination in fewer sunspots. There have been some reported connections beteen activity on the sun and earth quakes on the sun, but proof is limited. Now, we may be living thought one of Mother Natures experiments in climate change.  

Ice Age Now has the story on the Cordón Caulle volanoe,  including some stunning video of the erruption.               

The volcanic complex Cordón Caulle erupted on Saturday in southern Chile, causing the evacuation of thousands of people in surrounding areas.

A column of steam and ash reached more than ten miles high and then headed for Argentina as an eerie lightning show danced through the ash clouds overnight.
 

Authorities initially said the Puyehue volcano was involved, but later said the eruption was taking place about 2½ miles (4 km) from that peak.

A rift more than 6 miles (10 km) long and 3 miles (5 km) across was torn in the earth's crust, officials said Saturday night.

You can read the rest of the story and watch the video here.

If this eruption continues with such intensity for a long time, which is virtually unpredictable, it could force temperatures lower this winter in the Southern Hemisphere according to experts.

We are currently being bombarded by a proton burst also suggests there could be other major quakes and eruptions today, stay tuned and lets see what Mother Nature may have in store for us,especially if we reach 10MeV.

Swarm of Nevada Quakes have Experts Concerned (updated)

Russ Steele

Nevada Seismologists are keeping a close eye on an area southwest of Hawthorne, Nevada where hundreds of earthquakes have been detected since Sunday.

" It's a little bit concerning in a sense.. The largest earthquakes in these sequences are pretty large in size." Graham Kent is Director of Nevada Seismological Laboratory at the University of Nevada Reno. He says there have been hundreds of earthquakes southwest of Hawthorne over the past few days. The largest-- recorded at a 4.4 in size.

One has to wonder what is going on in Nevada and what is next?  USGS Earthquake monitoring web site here. Stay Tuned.

More details here.

Update (04-16-11, 18:05)  I was aware that Hawthrone sits in the Long Valley Supervolcano, but could not find the specific information, now it is available at Ice Age Now here.   For more details on the Supervolcano is here.

Japan's current disaster may not be over until Mt. Fuji belches (Updated)

Russ Steele

  One of the blog sites that I visit daily is Volcano Live by John Seach a note volcano photographer.  John hosts the world's first volcano news and travel website, which monitors worldwide volcanic activity, and provides adventure tours to the world's most exciting volcanoes.  Volcano eruptions have been associated with historic climate changes and they need to be considered when assessing future changes, which is a hobby interest of mine.

John had this to say about the Great Japan Earthquake and it's potential impact on volcanic eruptions. 

The Great Japan Earthquake of 2011 (mag 8.9 9.0) and its aftershocks, are capable [of] disrupting volcanoes large distances from the epicentre. Very large eruptions are possible after Great Earthquakes. It is possible for eruptions to occur anytime after the earthquake, and the high risk period will last for several months. Japan contains ten percent of the world's active volcanoes. The closest active volcano to the earthquake is Narugo, 150 km WNW of the epicentre. Volcanoes near to the earthquake epicentre include:

Kurikoma (153 km), Zao (170 km), Hijiori (195 km), Azuma (200 km), Adatara (200 km), Iwate (205 km), Akita-Komaga-take (210 km), Bandai (220 km), Chokai (220 km), Hachimantai (223 km), Akita-Yake-yama (228 km), and Nasu (250 km). [Complete list of Japan's volcanos is here.]

The aftershocks are migrating south and now are within 70 km of Tokyo and 200 km of Mt Fuji volcano. Mt Fuji last erupted in 1708.

I was curious to see if the Mt Fuji eruption in 1708 was associated with a large earthquake, and I found this on the Internet:

The notorious last eruption of Mt. Fuji began with a huge earthquake on November 11, 1707. For miles around the epicenter, Japanese people felt the effects of this earthquake, particularly in the city of Osaka. People knew that Mt. Fuji could be expected to blow at any time, but the explosion was no less than historic.

The Great Hoei Eruption, as it is now known, occurred between mid-December and early January of 1707-1708, causing earthquake-like tremors for miles around and strewing huge amounts of ash and cinder. On the fateful day of December 16, 1707, Mt. Fuji began belching up ash and cinder. The explosions continued for a period of more than two weeks, spitting up hundreds of millions of cubic feet of volcanic ash, which was spread for miles and miles to the east of the mountain.

To put the range of the explosion into context, ash even fell in the city of Tokyo nearly 90 miles away! This eruption is still remembered today for its notoriety, which created three new vent holes in the volcanic mountain.

There seems to be a delayed reaction between the earth quake and a future eruption. As one scientist explained, huge earth quakes cause the magma to slosh about below the earth's crust and then when the waves of magma combine, they fill the chambers under volcanoes and which can start it erupting. There my be more disaster on the horizon for Japan. Stay tuned.

Exit Question: Do you think that a 9.0 earth quake will cause near by volcanoes to erupt?

Update (03-15-11, 22:00) A large, shallow earthquake (mag 6.2) occurred under the SSW flank of Mt Fuji on 15th March 2011.

Mt Fuji Volcano Eruptions:  1707-08, 1700, 1627?, 1560, 1511, 1427?, 1083, 1032, 1017?, 999?, 993?, 952?, 937?, 932, 870, 864-65, 830, 826, 802, 800, 781.

Is Solar activity to blame for Japan's massive earthquake?

Russ Steele

This is an interesting question.  I have been investigating the connections between solar and volcanic activity over the last couple of months. There seems to be a sun/volcanic connection, resulting in significant changes in the global climate.  Low sunspots seem to be correlated with increased volcanic activity, which cause long term cooler temperatures.  Here are two papers I have been studying:

Download Solar volcanic correlation

Download Seismic activity and sunspots

Here is an article by Paul Hudson at the UK Times: Is Solar activity to blame for Japan's massive earthquake?

The massive earthquake that affected Japan this morning is one of the strongest in recorded history at 8.9 on the Richter scale.

With a number of powerful earthquakes recently it once again begs the question, is there a link between seismic activity and solar activity?

Recently we have witnessed a very unusual, prolonged period of low solar activity. Solar activity though has increased sharply in recent weeks.

Only yesterday I noticed that the number of recorded sunspots (a crude measure of solar activity) was in excess of 100 - compared with 6 months ago when the number of sunspots was zero.

In March last year a preliminary study was published from the Space and Science research centre in Florida.

A review of historical records was performed for 350 years of global volcanic activity (1650-2009) and seismic (earthquake) activity for the past 300 years (1700 to 2009) within the continental United States and then compared to the Sun's record of sunspots as a measure of solar activity.

According to this study, there exists a strong correlation between solar activity and the Earth's largest seismic and volcanic events.

They found an impressive degree of correlation for global volcanic activity (>80.6%) and for the largest USA earthquakes (100% of the top 7 most powerful) versus solar activity lows.

According to another study, published in Earth and Planetary Science letters, solar activity, as indicated by sunspots, radio noise and geomagnetic indices, plays a significant but by no means exclusive role in the triggering of earthquakes, with maximum quake frequency occurring at times of moderately high and fluctuating solar activity - which is what we have seen in the last few weeks.

Read the rest here.

Exit Questions: Do you think there is sun connection to earth quake or volcanic activity?

Well, it was going to be cold winter - but now this! (updated 10-29-10)

Russ Steele

Photo is from Google Earth

While I have been watching the Iceland volcanos daily here as potential contributors to another Grand Minimum like the Dalton Minimum in the late 1700s and early 1800s, two Russian volcanoes erupted Thursday on Russia's far-eastern Kamchatka Peninsula. 

The volcanos tossed massive ash clouds miles into the air, forcing flights to divert and blanketing towns with thick, heavy ash. The Klyuchevskaya Sopka, Eurasia's highest active volcano, exploded along with the Shiveluch volcano, 45 miles to the northeast.  Ash clouds from the remote volcanoes are billowed up to 33,000 feet and spreading east across the Pacific Ocean.

Meteorologist Joseph D'Aleo said in an interview that we are headed for a Dalton Minimum. Details here.
He said in another report, the real wild card the return of a Dalton Minimum will be volcanic eruption in the Northern Hemisphere.  It looks like the wild card may have arrived, but we will have to wait and see how long the eruptions continue and where the ash clouds drift.

One interesting note, I have been look at the Iceland volcano page for months, with daily earth quakes showing on the graphic.  Now that the Russian volcanos have erupted, the Iceland earth quakes have stopped. Details here.

Update (10-29-10, 07:25) According to Dr Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D. the global ocean temperatues continue to fall. He provided the following image showing the data updated through October 27. "Needless to say, there is no end in sight to the cooling," said Dr Spencer.

How low will it go, with all the increased volcanic activitity?  Stay Tuned!

Iceland volcano update: Fourteen earthquakes in 48 hours

Russ Steele

Fourteen earthquakes have occurred below Iceland's Mýrdalsjökull glacier during the past 48 hours - one within the last few hours. Katla Volcano lies beneath the Mýrdalsjökull glacier.

Katla Volcano usually erupts every century, says Iceland's President Olafur Grimsson. and the last eruption was in 1918. "The time for Katla to erupt is coming close."

Every time Katla has erupted in human history the human race has suffered. Now, with our dependence on air travel to transport food and people for business and  tourism the impact will be significant in the short term. Long term the shortening of the growing season will impact the global food supply. The northern grain growing regions in the US, Canada and Russia will be unable to produce the surpluses that have fed hungry mouths around the world.  Some regions will shift southward, but will not be enough to feed the hungry. 

And the useful idiots are worried about heat waves in in 2020 and 2029. They will be praying for those head waves before this is over.  The eruption of Katla will become a game changing event, for which we are unprepared, yet history has left us a message that we are ignoring. It is not if, but when Katla will erupt and in the past the consequences have been severe. 

Exit questions: Are you prepared?

H/T to Ice Age Now

Are you ready for a change in the weather?

Russ Steele

I have written about the impact of volcanoes on our weather here and here. Now vulcanologist in Iceland are reporting a swarm of 13 earth quakes on or near Katla in the last 24 hours. This is the most they have seen in such a short time and think that they are getting closer and closer to an eruption.  Read more here.

In the past when Katla erupted it has a significant impact on the weather in the Northern Hemisphere for several years. A Katla eruption would have more serious consequences for Europe and transatlantic air travel and associated economic impacts. Stay tuned for updates.

H/T to The Next Ice Age Now

Mother Nature’s Threesome

Russ Steele

Art Horn a long time TV a meteorologist has an excellent summary of what Mother Nature may have in story for us:  La Nina weather pattern, a solar minimum, and a massive volcanic eruption. A threesome of cold weather events not seen for two hundred years.

This is not a computer model forecasts, this is history based science. When these event have happened in the past the planet cooled. Now we may have the potential for all three at the same time, a triad of cooling events.

Art Horn:

In a cosmically ironic twist of fate and timing, nature may be set to empirically freeze any and all anthropogenic global warming talk: a blast of Arctic cold may encase the earth in an icy grip not seen for 200 years.

This is not alarmist fantasy or 2012 babble — several natural forces that are known to cause cooling are awakening simultaneously, raising speculation of a “perfect storm” of downward pressures on global temperature. These forces let loose one at a time can cause the Earth to cool and can bring about harsh winter conditions. If they all break free at once, the effects could be felt not just in the coming winter, but year-round, and for several years to come.

You can read the detail about this pending triad at: Global Cold Wave May Be Looming — This Time, the Science Is Good.

Forecasts of natural phenomena are notoriously difficult. However, a unique set of natural circumstances have a chance to unify into a formidable triad. All eyes will be on Iceland to see if Katla awakens from its long sleep, and if it does, the theory of man-made global warming will be handed yet another crushing blow.

We have already seen the results of the late spring frost on local agriculture in Nevada County. Full story here.

Wet, cold weather and a late spring freeze have pummeled pockets of crops in western Nevada County, leaving some growers devastated — and others feeling lucky.

Early vegetables, wine grapes and some fruit have been damaged or ruined by frost, sleet, rain and hail during late April and May, according to county farmers.

Much of the damage depended on the area's variable topography; low areas that capture cool air were hit the hardest.

“It's pretty bad,” said Nevada County Agricultural Commissioner Jeff Pylman.

An early fall frost could damage the harvest of those crops surviving of the spring freeze, and the replanted replacement crops.  Keep your weather eye on the Iceland volcano here, the advancing La Nina here and number of sun spots here.