NC Media Watch

Snowy Amgen?

Russ Steele

A late winter storm will strike the Sierra just as organizers are kicking off the Amgen bike tour of California at 10:00 on Sunday morning. The National Weather Service is predicting 3-5 inches of snow at lake level in the Tahoe basin by Sunday evening, while higher elevations could see 12 inches of snow.
Is snow in May at Lake Tahoe unusual you ask?   Looking at the 107 year record it snowed an inch or more in May 44 years out of 107, or 41 percent of the time. The average depth is 3.7 inches, how ever there were some block buster springs:
1912 - 20 in 
1933 - 16.5 in
1950 - 21 in
1953 - 16 in
1964 - 33.5 in
1977 - 16.5 in

Exit Question:  Will the start of Amgen be delayed?

Over E-mail tansom: NASA Gets Caught Faking Climate Change Data-AGAIN!

Russ Steele

A regular reader sent me an e-mail linking to this article at Big Government by Jeff Dunetz on the shinigans at NASA to hide Mother Nature's real world from their crappy computer models. As Jeff writes, Mother Nature is not copperating with NASA's insistence that the sea levels are rising at an accelerated rate. But, then again Mother Nature was never very good at computer science. Nor is she very good at hiding reality.

Satellite data proved that the first decade of the 21st century sea level grew by only 0.83 inches (a pace of just 8 inches for the entire century). What’s even worse (for the global warming hoaxers) there has been no rise since 2006.  Now I know that some Democrats believe that Obama is a miracle worker, but even the the crazies at the Daily Kos would admit that controlling sea level is way above his pay grade. So the scientists at the University of Colorado’s NASA-funded Sea Level Research Group did what any other self-respecting cult members would do, they fudged the numbers.  They simply added .3 millimeters per year to its Global Mean Sea Level Time Series. That way they could report that the sea level rise was accelerating, instead of  what was actually happening–decelerating.

I wrote back in 2007 Jame Hansen NASA/GISS being was forced to revise his published figures for US surface temperatures, to show that the hottest year in history was not 1998 as he had claimed, but 1934, when statistician Stephen McIntyre discovered an error in the NASA calculations.

According to multiple press reports, when NASA corrected the error, the new data apparently caused a reshuffling of NASA’s rankings for the hottest years on record in the United States, with 1934 replacing 1998 at the top of the list.

Jeff is not done yet, we still have NASA/GISS 4 degree increase in arctic temperatures to deal with.

Hansen announced recently that “The 12-month running mean global temperature in the Goddard Space Institute analysis has reached a new record in 2010  The main factor is our estimated temperature change for the Arctic region.” The GISS figures show that recent temperatures in the Arctic have been up to four degrees C warmer than the long-term mean.

But, as we have reported here before there are no GISS weather station thermomenter above the arctic circle. So, if there was no thermometers were did the temperatures come from? Oh, they were made up!

Art Horn, at the Energy Tribune blog, has blown the whistle on Hansen and GISS. He points out that GISS has no thermometers in the Arctic! It has hardly thermometers that are even near the Arctic Circle. GISS estimates its arctic temperatures from land-based thermometers that supposedly each represent the temperatures over 1200 square kilometers. That’s a pretty heroic assumption.

The whole article is an interesting read, including the pictures.

May snow on Sunday, it has happened in the past?

Russ Steele

I was listening to a KNCO weather report report this morning, and they are forecasting snow down to 3,500 feet on Sunday.  It started me wondering when the last time that we had May snow in Western Nevada County. I check the Nevada City Snow Fall Record and found:

1893-94  1.5 inches
1894-95  1.0 inches
1902-03   3.0 inches
1900-04   1.0 inches
1940-41   3.0 inches
1949-50   2.0 inches
1976-77   1.0 inches

The stage one Amgen racers cycling around Lake Tahoe maybe racing through the snow.  It may still be snow shower on Donner Pass on Monday for stage two from Lake Tahoe to Sacramento. 

It is intereting to note, that 1976-77 was a year of sever drought in California.

The Great Frost?

Russ Steele

I just posted an interesting article by Dennis Avery on my The Dalton Minimum Returns blog.

The Great Frost followed a period of very few sunspots—the Maunder Minimum (1645–1715). Today, we know that fewer sunspots predict colder temperatures, and the modern world has just undergone a similar dearth of sunspots, from 2007 to 2011.

Read the whole article at The Dalton Minimum Returns.

Exit Question: Could these cool temperatures result in an early June killing frost in America's Bread Basket?

Before and After Satellite Images Show Path of Tornado's Destruction

Russ Steele

The New York Times has the interactive pictures.

Satellite images taken by GeoEye the day after storms blasted through the south show a nearly straight line path of devastation, most likely from one tornado, stretching at least 10 miles. Use the slider and zoom tools to compare images taken before and after the tornado.

  Access the the pictures here.

NBC: Global warming is causing stronger tornadoes (Updated)

Russ Steele

I was watching NBC Dateline's Path of Destruction tonight, a program on the current outbreak of tornadoes with Brian Williams in Alabama.  He was discussing the power of tornadoes with Jim Cantore of the Weather Channel.  Williams ask Cantore, why are we seeing such powerful storm like we have never seen in a life time, we must be doing something to cause this.  Cantore said that is getting warmer and the warming is juicing up the jet-stream, which is producing the stronger tornadoes. 

What?  I used to admire Jim Cantore, but once NBC bought the Weather Channel I began to question the accuracy of his analysis. He should know that it is the clash of cold air with the warm air coming from the Gulf of Mexico that causes tornado activity. Cold air is an essential element for the creation of tornadoes.

Here is what Dr Roy Spence had to say about this clash of air masses.

MORE Tornadoes from Global Warming? That’s a Joke, Right?
by Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D.

If there is one weather phenomenon global warming theory does NOT predict more of, it would be severe thunderstorms and tornadoes.Tornadic thunderstorms do not require tropical-type warmth. In fact, tornadoes are almost unheard of in the tropics, despite frequent thunderstorm activity.

Instead, tornadoes require strong wind shear (wind speed and direction changing rapidly with height in the lower atmosphere), the kind which develops when cold and warm air masses “collide”. Of course, other elements must be present, such as an unstable airmass and sufficient low-level humidity, but wind shear is the key. Strong warm advection (warm air riding up and over the cooler air mass, which is also what causes the strong wind shear) in advance of a low pressure area riding along the boundary between the two air masses is where these storms form.

But contrasting air mass temperatures is the key. Active tornado seasons in the U.S. are almost always due to unusually COOL air persisting over the Midwest and Ohio Valley longer than it normally does as we transition into spring.

For example, the poster child for active tornado seasons was the Superoutbreak of 1974, which was during globally cool conditions. This year, we are seeing much cooler than normal conditions through the corn belt, even delaying the planting schedule. Cool La Nina years seem to favor more tornadoes, and we are now coming out of a persistent La Nina. The global-average temperature has plummeted by about 1 deg. F in just one year.

ooo

It is well known that strong to violent tornado activity in the U.S. has decreased markedly since statistics began in the 1950s, which has also been a period of average warming. So, if anything, global warming causes FEWER tornado outbreaks…not more. In other words, more violent tornadoes would, if anything, be a sign of “global cooling”, not “global warming”.Anyone who claims more tornadoes are caused by global warming is either misinformed, pandering, or delusional.

As for Brian Williams claim of the strongest in a life time, here is a historical listing to violent tornadoe outbreaks from Watt Up With That:

Historically, there have been many tornado outbreaks that occurred well before climate change was on anyone’s radar.  Here’s a few:
1908 Southeast tornado outbreak 324 fatalities, ≥1,720 injuries
1920 Palm Sunday tornado outbreak ≥380 fatalities, ≥1215 injuries
1925 Tri-State tornado ≥747 fatalities, ≥2298 injuries
1932 Deep South tornado outbreak  ≥330 fatalities, 2145 injuries
1952 Arkansas-Tennessee tornado outbreak 208 fatalities
1965 Palm Sunday tornado outbreak 256 fatalities
April 3-4 1974 Super Outbreak 315 fatalities

You would think that professional meteorologist Jim Cantore would know about this historic tornado activity and set Brian Williams straight.  Or, maybe that would not have fit the NBC global warming template.

Update (05-01-11, 11:45)  NBC’s Brian Williams tries to tie recent tornadoes to global warming … again

The Daily Caller has video evidence that Brian Williams has tried several times to tie recent tornadoes to global warming.  Details here.  The Caller also notes:

Although that seems like a harmless-enough question, late last year it was reported General Electric (GE), a stakeholder in Williams’ parent company NBC Universal, received $24.9 million in grants, much of it tied to so-called green energy technology, from the $800-billion stimulus President Barack Obama signed into law in 2009. Therefore, establishing such a link could serve in in GE’s interest some argue.

Ready for some cooler weather?

Russ Steele

There has been a  strong explosive eruption of the Bezymianny volcano on Kamchatka Peninsula last night raising the alert code to RED for the region.

Preliminary reports indicate the ash  billowing to least to 33,000 feet. The volcano's activity could affect international and low-flying aircraft, and climate according to experts.

Bezymianny was thought to be dormant before the major eruption of 1955/56. That eruption may have played a role in the turn to colder weather in the late 1950s.  High latitude volcanos have had a impact on the northern hemisphere climate in the past. The question is, are we in for a repeat. Stay tuned.

Here is a local temperature plot for Grass Valley and Nevada City.  Note the dip in 1955/1956//1957 in both plots.

Russ Steele

On April 4 NASA released a new solar cycle prediction, and they say Cycle 24 may be the smallest sunspot cycle in 200 years.

More details at Dalton Minimum Returns.

Snow survey results are in -- 165% of normal

Russ  Steele

The March Sierra Snow Survey results are in and the Water Board found the water content was 160% of normal.  And Goveror Brown recended Arnold's drought executive order today, California is now offically not in a drought.  The drought was really over last year, but California and Federal officals were hoping the drought would return this year,  so they can continue to destroy job in the Central Valley.

KCRA Channel 3 has the story here.

Record snow fall at Boreal Ski Resort

Russ Steele

In March Boreal, just west of Donner Pass on I-80, reecieved 217 inches of snow. This brings the season snow fall to 762 inches (56 feet). The previous record was 662 inches in 1994/95. The season normal is about 400 inches.  The current base in between 275 and 375 inches. (20-30 feet)

The 1st of April snow survey is only days away, it will be interesting to see if the water content is also a Sierra record.

Here is the NOAA Snow Water Equivalent Map.


H/T ICECAP.